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Chekhov MacGuffin

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Everything posted by Chekhov MacGuffin

  1. My past handedness analysis suggests that miscellaneous hand actions like this are pretty indicative of handedness, but it's more of an 85% rather than a 100% thing. Maybe Asaka signed into the hotel book? (Or Gosho thinks American hotels do that Japanese thing.) That is true.
  2. Good summary of these ideas and how they would work! Too early to tell. Yes, for now. I think Asaka is Kohji's and Amanda Hughes' killer per Conan's suspicions and because it's the simplest theory to cover the facts we have available now. I also think he stole the dying message from the crime scene as a last minute clean up, thus causing his gender to be mistaken. That sort of trick would be very in line with the methods used in the several past "conflicting witness testimony" cases (there are at least 3 of them), and explains the reason Gosho made the unusual move of waiting to append that detail to the end of the case. It's possible for something more complicated to come up (like the Wakasa = Akasa theory above), but I'm not going there until there is a reason to. I think the presence of the Black Organization at the songwriter murder case as well as Vermouth specifically asking a suspect why the song was spelt with a "Ca" rather than a "Ka" show that the Black Organization sees Asaca Rum as the correct decoding (and their motivation for investigating). It is possible the Black Organization is incorrect and the message is truly something else. If Kohji was trying to write Wakasa Rumi, I would have left the M behind turned upsidedown as a W by the mirror. There are also more elements of the dying message scene that Conan may not have considered. There is "Juke Hot(el)" and the half a heart that looks like a cursive c. For now though, I don't see a reason why the message is wrong. We have a pretty convincing answer (the BO's opinion!) that covers all the known info from the Kohji case so far, with no known contradictions that can't be explained. Same goes with Asaka=Rum. (We know Rum screwed up in the Kohji case because Gin bitched about it. Asaka killing Kohji and failing to clean up his dying message before pictures appeared seems like an appropriately large botch.) Leaping to alternate solutions just because something seems too simple or obvious can be even more perilous than taking something suspicious at face value. Oftentimes with Gosho, the simplest thing that explains all the events is the right answer. Asaka does not have enough boobage to be Mary. Asaka's hand blocking picture is low quality, but not so bad that you would miss a pair of grapefruits as displayed in the flashback. Copy from here: http://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?t=7259&start=105#p617343 I went through the Vermouth arc after it was written solo with no internet discussion or spoilers, but I got the right answer in the end because primarily because Vermouth went to school to be close to Conan and Ai, and Jodie went to the high school because she was following Araide. I missed the pictures of pictures clue and the not-aging. The NY case helped me make the major breakthroughs in figuring out Vermouth's identity and motives. That case explained the motive (loyalty shinichi and ran), and clarified her skills. I think there was a period where I thought Chris and Sharon were separate but it was Chris that appeared in NY as Sharon for reasons, but that changed sometime before the flashback to Jodie's past probably because only Sharon could be familiar enough with Yukiko -- I can't remember exactly why right now. The flashback to Jodie's past set in stone all my suspicions. I'm not sure why I never figured out the aging discrepancy, I probably overlooked it because I wanted to see if I was right on the other things and rushed. I lost my brainstorming and notes sheet doc in a comp failure years ago. It's not so much that I doubt Sakurako completely, just that beyond the little notice of Conan's behavior, she hasn't shown any signs of becoming a potential plot character This is the main difference between Tomaki and Sakurako. In terms of current plot relevant chars, Sakurako has only appeared with Shuukichi, but nothing has happened to indicate we should be suspecting her of being related to anything. Tomoaki appeared with Jodie and Haibara and Shinichi in Desperate Revival, then Akai and Jodie and Haibara in the busjack. Busjack was when Haibara's senses went nuts and told every sensible reader that Vermi was Jodie, Akai, or Tomoaki. We don't have the equivalent of a "Vermouth on a bus. Three suspects. Which one?" moment right now. We have a dozen+ recent recurring chars, a vague description of Rum, and some unconnected backstories. Sometimes background fluff characters get introduced like Azusa Enomoto, Yoko Okino, Hideo Akagi, Ryusuke Higo, or pre-Shiratori Sumiko Kobayashi. Sakurako isn't a theory priority until a Sakurako-sized gap in the plot appears or she starts hanging out with more plot chars.
  3. Besides some case name puns and maybe some background products/titles in certain scenes (e.g. toys owned by otaku suspects like Chiba), I haven't seen anything else other than what I mentioned above obviously related to Gundam. That's why I said I think Gosho's interest in Gundam homages only goes as far as Akai and Bourbon. I haven't observed any other plot moments where I saw a definite connection to Gundam versus similarities that are likely to be coincidence. My current opinion is that researching Gundam won't help untangle future plots. Sera Masumi is named after Sayla Mass which is why their names are similar.
  4. The mirror Asaka was seen with could be Kohji's dying message mirror. I think he stole it from the crime scene because he realized it was a dying message. The mystery photographer was able to take pictures before Asaka returned to retrieve it. I believe Asaka may have been temporarily forced to retreat because Kohji stabbed his eye in their struggle, thus Rum's missing eye.
  5. By DCUniverseAficinado's method, the first month covers 39 cases some of which go on for more than one day. If you just count the days shown in manga (ignoring seasons and stuff) and assume that two cases don't take place on the same day unless shown, more than 31 days that have passed. I remember doing this type of tally and gave up around the Hatamoto Family Murder Case because it became clear that I wasn't going to get a logical or useful result. It's a noble attempt, DCUniverseAficinado, but just as nonsensical as the floating timeline. It ultimately doesn't matter because Gosho has been careful to make sure exact times don't matter as far as current events go. Other than the fact that Conan-form is less than a year old, Gosho is pretty careful to scrub references to when other events happened relative to one another because he doesn't want readers thinking about it too much. The only time precision matters are events prior to Conan where Gosho often gives relatively precise times.
  6. I watched all of the first Gundam series and my opinion after doing so is that Gosho's interest in Gundam homages only goes as far as Akai and Bourbon. Gosho seems more interested in recreating the classic feel of Gundam's Char-Amuro rivalry with Shuuichi and Rei rather than importing an exact storyline from Gundam. This makes sense because Gosho has his own story to tell and copying another story would distract from that. The Akai family storyline seems to be going in a completely different direction than the Gundam original series. Char's family background wasn't this complicated. If there are similar-to-Gundam tropes coming up for the rest of the Akai and Haneda family, it's more likely to be a coincidence than deliberate copying. I think that Masumi and Sayla Mass are very different as characters. Compared to Sera, Sayla is even more useless and emotional rather than logical. Sayla is most like Bourbon-arc Jodie. (I'm still not over how badly Jodie's character has been mangled. Vermouth-arc Jodie come back pls. D: ) The most Sayla-like moment for Masumi in the DC manga was on the mystery train was when she reacted poorly to Vermouth's Scar Akai and then got taken out immediately. Other than that, Sera generally has her act together even though she gets beaten by Conan in every matchup they have. I really don't see the Gundam stuff spreading outside the FBI, certain Akais, and Bourbon to be honest. There are some generic storyline parallels, but I 100% don't think Gosho is going to make Rum or the BO boss a Zeon homage or something like that.
  7. The 4 live action specials and the live action drama series aren't essential to anything and are liberal with the canon (alcoholic cakes = APTX antidote, entire case with Eri when Shinichi is supposed to have forgotten who Eri is). You aren't missing anything if you skip them. All but one are flashbacks to before Shinichi shrunk, but the character relationships won't make sense without knowing events in the main continuity. Some of them involve Kaitou Kid, Eri, some police, Haibara Ai, and Sonoko, and the events of the Vermouth arc. I'd simply watch them when they are aired, which means looking up the date the special aired, looking up the anime case with the closest airdate, and then watching the special after that episode. You can edit your posts btw, no need to double post.
  8. But, even with a hyper-awareness, anokata would realize that he could not evade assassination attempts forever, therefore he would only have it going on as long as absolutely necessary to allay any suspicions. And, as that kind of person would be extremely intelligent and perceptive behind the facade, he would be able to guage the reactions of the persons involved and call off the hit once his goal has been accomplished. I am on episode 424 and I seem to remember at least one episode when Haibara failed to react to the presence of a Black Organization member. Additionally, anokata would be so deeply immersed into his cover and masking his presence, whether he is Kogoro or somebody else, that I would be surprised if she DID get a reaction to him. I am sure he HAS realized Conan and Haibara's situation. The reason he doesn't send the Organization to kill one or both of them is simple. They are too close to him, so their deaths might draw undue attention, but they are close enough that he can watch them himself and know when they become a real threat making their elimination essential. Your responses are incredibly weak because they fail to address why the boss would voluntarily putting himself in the line of fire, and how his actions make sense without omniscience. One of the things you don't know yet is that Vermouth has explained that the boss is "Cautious to a Fault". He is someone so careful that he is liable to break a bridge testing it to make sure it is safe to cross. Therefore an aggressive, fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants plot that would frame himself and put his life at risk based on an unstable scenario where one of his agents suddenly disappeared and Conan is doing who-knows-what seems entirely contrary to his nature as Vermouth explains it. There are far too many unknowns. How would the boss know Conan would reach him in time and the distractions would work? How was the boss planning to call off Gin after Conan had tried and failed to distract them - when going to the window to yell at Conan exposes him more? It doesn't make sense. Finally, do you really think hypothetical bossKogoro is unable to figure out how to make Conan and Ai have an accident that couldn't be traced back to him when he knows Conan's behavior intimately and has the resources of a whole Organization? Wave one whiff of a murder mystery in front of Conan and he runs off, and the Detective Boys are sure to follow, meaning the boss can easily put Conan and Ai into any sort of deadly setup he may like. Also, why wait to eliminate them when they are already making friends with ex-members and the FBI? Kogoroboss should have shut Conan down after interfering with Gin and Vodka on the train case, the one where Kogoro stayed on the train that the two MiB were trying to blow up, which doesn't make any sense. The plotholes don't pass scrutiny. Also, in addition to what everyone else has said, before Vermouth dropped that line about the boss's personality, most people didn't think Kogoro would be the boss because it would be out of character. Gosho doesn't go in for "bullshit twists". Gosho is a plain vanilla by-the-rules mystery designer as evidenced in all his regular cases and arc cases to date. He has never once has done something dirty to lie to the reader, such as have someone who wasn't a suspect who hadn't made prior appearances be the killer. Even the misleading thoughts and dialogue always have a true context that makes sense and explains the choice of words. Furthermore, Gosho plays fair because he wants his readers to solve the mystery, unlike the writers who employ bullshit twists because they want "no one saw this coming" or to defeat the reader. (Even though a major ally being the mastermind is such an overdone trope that it is charcoal. It's also why everyone and their mom starts by suspecting the protagonist's friends.) When you get there, somewhere in chapters 550-552 (hammer nail snake case) Conan roughly says that people often times really are what they seem, and that it's impossible to live a lie without letting the cracks of who you really are show through. Therefore, it would be out of character for Gosho to set up such a major premise "If the Black Organization finds out Conan/Ai's true identity, they and everyone around them will be killed", and then defy it by having a boss who did know but didn't act because of some handwavy, sketchy reason.
  9. There are some contradictions between the MK 1412/MK special and DC timeline. A lot of the first part of the MK 1412 timeline should take place while Shinichi is an adult, but the episodes show Conan which makes no sense. Kaitou Kid needed some time to get sorta good at being a thief and reach status quo with Akako and Hakuba before Shinichi could appear. I made a when-to-watch timeline, but it is not official or comprehensive, is entirely dependent on what I think is a good idea, nor does it fit episodes for exact chronology, because that would be a lot of work. http://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=12153&p=797800#p797800
  10. I checked the old man. As you can see in 945p14 he's short, but he is also significantly bent over. Straighten him out and his chin is level with Yumi's clavicle. Back to the flashback picture, even if you shave off a few inches of Shuukichi's legs for sitting on them, his torso length is only a touch shorter than the old man's (who is also sitting on a pillow and in a similar state of bent overness). That means that middle school Shuukichi should have his chin height slightly below Yumi's clavicle. The flashback kid has his chin 3/4 of a head below Mary's clavicle. Assuming the flashback is 10-12 years ago like most are, Shuukichi should be in high school (16-18) rather than middle school, and thus taller than the middle school flashback. Again, I'm making a raft of assumptions I discussed earlier: that Mary isn't unusually tall for a DC woman, the perspective isn't wonky (like the kid is walking down some stairs and Mary is on the step above), the kid's hair isn't sopping wet (it is a beach case!). We only have that one picture to work from, so it's hard to call. I'm leaning on not Shuukichi for now, because of the aforementioned reasons and because the kid hasn't shown any verbal content traits that match Shuukich's quirks. I will change persepctives if more information comes out in favor of Shuukichi later.
  11. Ugh, Kor just informed me on the dctp spoiler cbox that I have to take back my take back. That image is of Shuukichi over 10 years ago, the English translation is faulty, and the Chinese is correct. That means for sure that Shuukichi was the height of a normal adult at the time the Ran Shinichi flashback took place.
  12. I was repeating what I had heard on the cbox, which I think was in turn repeated from the Chinese, who have been unreliable in the past about theory data. The scene I listed as 15 years ago in the flashback is ten years ago (File 945p11). We don't have an older image of Shuukichi we can pin down with an accurate number. Turns out the English Translation is wrong. It's from over 10 years ago.
  13. Double post but more pics. Not a lot new. https://imgur.com/C4uT9O1 https://imgur.com/CVHmc87 https://imgur.com/a/tnIm4 It's likely that there are no more flashback pics, and that most of the file is devoted to swimsuits and the current case.
  14. Baidu doesn't allow hotlinking, so you must reupload it somewhere. That's why it doesn't work.
  15. I've probably put about 10-12 hours into it. Here's the thing, I didn't start with any assumptions about exactly how or how often Gosho would portray half-blind chars as far as looks go. I simply did the tallies, put some numbers together in a way that I thought was logical, and let the data speak for itself. I looked at the way various characters behaved across almost 250 chapters worth of time for consistency. And the data hath spoken: there are trends which allow you to spot half-blind characters from the numbers alone after they have appeared enough. I think you underestimate both Gosho's fairness and statistics' power to pierce the veil of seeming randomness to find patterns. I've already been through an analysis like this for handedness which worked flawlessly, so I know math will work on Gosho. Even when Gosho takes a different approach to two characters (say Kuroda vs Kansuke's behavior) it leaves a trail in the numbers. That's why I took the time to pin down about how many datapoints are needed before calling it. I suggest 120 "non-SS" looks. The only reason I called Sakurako at 80 is because I could tell in the middle of tallying that she was behaving consistently within a case and between cases. They aren't "my suspects". I picked those characters because they are popular suspects in the fandom. I will get around to doing Mary and Shuukichi, but I flagged them as lower priority because most people aren't as suspicious of them. None of the major recurring Rum arc characters are appealing in the slightest, so a new character or one we haven't seen much of yet.
  16. Well, I did something useful for once; I leveraged the power of statistics to figure out how to spot characters who have only one working eye and are trying to hide it. Using Kansuke as my model and Koumei and Conan as controls, I was able to preliminarily identify the traits of one-eyed characters by simply counting the number of panels where they turn their heads and look a certain way. I then applied the results to Rumi, Kuroda, and Sakurako Yonehara. Kuroda has too few points to go off of, but an interesting lack of head turning. Rumi appears to have two working eyes, but there is not enough data to tell for sure. Sakurako was much more definitive: two working eyes and an honest disposition that avoids sideyeing characters. Mathematically, Sakurako is out of the running for Rum. From now on, any new character who appears for 2-3+ cases will not be able to hide from the powers of math. You can see the results and more Rum hunting tips here: http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/wiki/User:Chekhov_MacGuffin/Vision
  17. Nope, I am not contradicting myself. Shinan-Kudogawa claimed the boss was going to be a business leader effectively because that's what stereotypical evil organization leaders do and the boss needs the cash. I was casting doubt on the validity of that pidgeonholing entirely independently of claiming the boss was de-aged. That's a guess, and there is still no evidence. I agree the boss and Vermouth are probably meeting, but Vermouth might only get to see the boss because she is the boss's favorite, and maybe everyone else like Gin deals with Rum. Because it is a general premise of the manga: Agasa said it at first, and then Haibara who had some actual authority came along and confirmed it: the organization values secrecy over research. "If I reported your condition to the organization, it's very likely you would have been terminated before I could do something useful." Haibara explains that Kudo would have been killed by the Black Organization anyway even though he was an "interesting specimen." She then reiterated that recently by saying Kuroda would have certainly attacked after seeing her face if he was Rum. Making a bloody splash among detectives and police wouldn't stop them either. In Kir's intro, Gin, with the boss's approval, was 100% willing to put Mouri down in his office on a moment's notice and then go through everyone around him until they dug out everyone who might know about the Org or where Sherry is. It was only the intervention of Akai Shuuichi AND Vermouth pleading that she needed Kogoro for reasons she doesn't want to go into that got Gin to back down... yet even now he still holds a grudge against Kogoro and wants him gone. Conan thought of handing over the Nanatsu no Ko phone number to Takagi for tracing, but Ai axed that idea saying the BO would find out,Takagi would be murdered, and then it would get ugly as the BO tried to find out where the number leaked from. Basically, as Vermouth put it, the only way to keep her angels safe is to keep them out of the world of the Black Organization, which means not telling anybody. Conan is pretty desperate to involve himself, and Vermouth couldn't stop Conan when she enacted an elaborate plan to separate Ai from him, so she has given up there. Vermouth got Bourbon to agree to not harming them, and maybe not so coincidentally, she picked Amuro probably because she somehow knew he would abide by that promise being the kind of person he is... Welcome to DC!The reason I knew you were new btw had nothing to do with questioning this, but because your theories suggest you haven't yet been burned by the no-one-communicates-with-each-another principle before: http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/wiki/User:Chekhov_MacGuffin/Recurring_Tropes#Lack_of_information_sharing
  18. I wish we had html view once again so I could quote by pieces. >However it is safe to assume that Anokata in appearance is an old Japanese man with a wealthy company as a front, due to the fact that if he was deaged or stayed young in any way he wuld be aware of the deaging effects and would have no reason not to tell Gin his loyal agent to look for a child Sherry. I don't think this is a safe assumption in the slightest because it assumes that A) The boss is a communicative person willing to reveal himself to Gin if he had such aging problems. B] Gin has even met the boss in person C) Gin knows this is the same boss as always despite your assumption that Gin only joined halfway through the Organization's existance. Gin saw Vermouth's true face in the Halloween case and yet has not drawn any conclusions about de-aging. That strongly suggests he isn't playing with the full deck of information about the Organization and its history. Your assumption that that the boss is some business leader instead of a math professor, or a law enforcement agent, or a scientist, or a retiree, or a corner grocer is based more on character stereotypes than information. >it is quite obvious that Anokata regards loyalty more than anything behind only the secrecy, as seen when he orders the murder of Pisco an old member of the B.O. . But what about Vermouth? She is pretty obviously keeping secrets. If Gin can tell, surely the boss can. The only trait we know for sure the boss considers a plus for agents is sheer savagery. Kir so far is the only person we know why was codenamed: for staying silent as her body was destroyed, biting a man's wrist to the bone, and then blowing his head off like an animal. Chianti (or Korn, I forget) said it was the ferocity of her actions showing that she was a person capable of snapping that convinced the boss, rather than loyalty alone. The idea that there are 7 starter agents and your guesses on their identities are asserted without evidence, so I don't really have anything to say about that.
  19. I felt we needed a thread for discussion of suspicious and recurring arc characters like Hyoue Kuroda, Wakasa Rumi, Sakurako Yonehara and others so we have a place to talk about them outside of their intro chapters and the Rum thread. I figured there might be more continuous discussion if I lumped all the suspicious arc characters into one thread rather than give each one a separate thread. Secret spies? Enemies of the Organization? Hidden backstories? False identities? Awesome? Stupid? Please post theories and comments about these characters here!
  20. Eh, I disagree, I think the characters can tell in-universe that Wakasa Rumi is too familiar. They might not have commented on it yet. The only names that are overlooked are the pop culture references (Gundam, Detectives), and even then it was a surprise when Kor's 007 name was explained. Both of these have been done though. We have had at least two spies introduced every arc so far. See agent Camel dispatched by Akai before we knew all of Akai's motives. We also have Jodie, James, Kir, Rei, Scotch, and probably Mary too. "It's very doubtful that Gosho is not gonna introduce a new subplot(unrelated to the other agencies/bureaus) through Wakasa" --> Is that double negative intentional? Because we got the Akai Family subplot through Sera. I don't think we are done with Japan's Public Security Bureau because Kuroda is involved in the regular police, and his mysterious backstory has not been addressed.
  21. I was discussing with Kor on the spoiler cbox, and he proposed the idea that Rumi could be, by process of elimination, a member of the secret police that Kuroda or Amuro may have sent to spy on Conan. The secret police don't know about many of Conan's exploits, but know he is showing up in places oddly relevant to the FBI and working with people like Agasa and Okiya whom Amuro still finds suspicious. In other words, the secret police know they are missing quite a bit of data on Conan. Given Kuroda and Amuro's personalities, I think it would not be out of character for the secret police to stick someone on Conan and the rest of the DB as a monitor of sorts. The process of elimination is that the BO would never use the name Asaka or Rum as a joke (no benefits) and the FBI and CIA wouldn't bother with Conan/the DB since Akai is the kids' contact. The regular police don't suspect Conan and can send Shiratori who in turn can call Kobayashi. Mi6 seems to be out of the picture for now, except with Mary who seems to be doing her own thing. That leaves just the secret police.
  22. No sane BO would use the name Wakasa Rumi unless she was trying to draw attention to herself for a mission, and there is doubly no way the valuable number two of the Organization would do it. It's the lower ranks' job to take the risks. Logically then, Rumi is a red herring. It's amazing how quickly people now hate her. Everyone who disliked Eisuke seems to transposed their ire on to her already. I didn't mind Eisuke, but I am annoyed we have a lack of realistic Rum suspects right now. Kuroda is the only one who might have something interesting in his backstory, and even then I am pretty sure he isn't Rum.
  23. Something that has been bugging me... I thought in DC quicklime accelerated the decay and breakdown of bodies, thus making more recent murders seem much older. Could the murder actually be more recent than five years? The clue that would make it clear what happened is whether there are any footprints in the quicklime. If the body is old, then whoever visited recently and rubbed the rust off should have left prints in the powder if they searched the place. It doesn't look like there are prints by the body, but I can't tell because there is no closeup of the area around the body. Besides I am bothered by Rumi wanting to use quicklime for lines. She should be using chalk. Quicklime is caustic and irritating and not suitable for use around kids who have sensitive skin. The dust was used in ye olde days as ancient crowd control like blinding tear gas. Quicklime is also used for making concrete which is why I suspect there are bags of it lying around. Either way, Rumi's request to the DB was suspicious from the start.
  24. I meant the in-universe reason. In most cases, like the Grey Planner for instance, something or someone is responsible for reviving a case that lies dormant.
  25. Precedent suggests plot developments happen most often on the first two pages of the first file and the last two pages of the last file. Either way, the fact that Haibara appears close to Wakasa and she doesn't trigger Ai's BO sensor react strongly suggests Wakasa innocent or case culprit. Adding that to the boring design, I think Wakasa is a throwaway character. I just want to know why this gold business is coming back to relevance right now after a decade of nothing happening.
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