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Chekhov MacGuffin

Suspicious characters! Discussion about Hyoue Kuroda, Wakasa Rumi, and others.

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9 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

Too early to tell.

anything is too early at this point (since DC has the tendency to use twists that deviate from the original suspicion)...

 

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I think the presence of the Black Organization at the songwriter murder case as well as Vermouth specifically asking a suspect why the song was spelt with a "Ca" rather than a "Ka" show that the Black Organization sees Asaca Rum as the correct decoding (and their motivation for investigating). It is possible the Black Organization is incorrect and the message is truly something else. If Kohji was trying to write Wakasa Rumi, I would have left the M behind turned upsidedown as a W by the mirror.

There are also more elements of the dying message scene that Conan may not have considered. There is "Juke Hot(el)" and the half a heart that looks like a cursive c.

For now though, I don't see a reason why the message is wrong. We have a pretty convincing answer (the BO's opinion!) that covers all the known info from the Kohji case so far, with no known contradictions that can't be explained. Same goes with Asaka=Rum. (We know Rum screwed up in the Kohji case because Gin bitched about it. Asaka killing Kohji and failing to clean up his dying message before pictures appeared seems like an appropriately large botch.) Leaping to alternate solutions just because something seems too simple or obvious can be even more perilous than taking something suspicious at face value. Oftentimes with Gosho, the simplest thing that explains all the events is the right answer.

I'm leaning more towards that the interpretation "Asaca=Rum" is wrong(whether the code is "Asaca Rum" or not). I'd find it odd if the BO couldn't at the very least figure out the possibility that it might be saying "Asaca Rum"(like how Conan and Shuu did). In fact, if they found something that looked like a dying message(the hand-mirror in this case), they are bound to make out the word "Rum"(the killer) before anything else, and then what's left is the name of the bodyguard, "Asaca"...

 

Except we don't know how many factors were involved in that case yet. It's not like we are a couple of chapters away from the climax(where everything gets revealed). so any new info can could come up that could contradict with this early "simple answer"(that obviously goes for all the theories out there at the moment)...

If Asaka isn't Mary, then my second option would be Rumi(Rum is my last option)...

 

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Asaka does not have enough boobage to be Mary. Asaka's hand blocking picture is low quality, but not so bad that you would miss a pair of grapefruits as displayed in the flashback.

Asaka_manga.jpg?action=purge

I can actually see enough "boobage" shape to be comparable to Mary's...

tumblr_oc7cq909yd1rg2acoo1_100.png

 

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Copy from here: http://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?t=7259&start=105#p617343

 

I went through the Vermouth arc after it was written solo with no internet discussion or spoilers, but I got the right answer in the end because primarily because Vermouth went to school to be close to Conan and Ai, and Jodie went to the high school because she was following Araide. I missed the pictures of pictures clue and the not-aging. The NY case helped me make the major breakthroughs in figuring out Vermouth's identity and motives. That case explained the motive (loyalty shinichi and ran), and clarified her skills. I think there was a period where I thought Chris and Sharon were separate but it was Chris that appeared in NY as Sharon for reasons, but that changed sometime before the flashback to Jodie's past probably because only Sharon could be familiar enough with Yukiko -- I can't remember exactly why right now. The flashback to Jodie's past set in stone all my suspicions. I'm not sure why I never figured out the aging discrepancy, I probably overlooked it because I wanted to see if I was right on the other things and rushed. I lost my brainstorming and notes sheet doc in a comp failure years ago.

That was a fun read! thanks for sharing your experience! ^^

As for Vermouth seeing, or wanting to get close to Ai...

you might've noticed if you've read my fan manga, but I don't agree with this. There are numerous hints pointing to that she never intended to get close to Haibara when she joined Teitan and she never knew of Sherry's whereabouts(or shrunken state) until much later:

- File 422 indicates that she found her(and realized that she had shrunken) just when she got an opportunity to see her.

- File 433(pg 11) reveals that she didn't know where Sherry was, and so she tried to use the FBI to track her down.

- File 458(pg 8) indicates that she had different reasons to joining Teitan High and Elementary School(which is obviously Ran and Conan).

 

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This is the main difference between Tomaki and Sakurako. In terms of current plot relevant chars, Sakurako has only appeared with Shuukichi, but nothing has happened to indicate we should be suspecting her of being related to anything. Tomoaki appeared with Jodie and Haibara and Shinichi in Desperate Revival, then Akai and Jodie and Haibara in the busjack. Busjack was when Haibara's senses went nuts and told every sensible reader that Vermi was Jodie, Akai, or Tomoaki. We don't have the equivalent of a "Vermouth on a bus. Three suspects. Which one?" moment right now. We have a dozen+ recent recurring chars, a vague description of Rum, and some unconnected backstories. Sometimes background fluff characters get introduced like Azusa Enomoto, Yoko Okino, Hideo Akagi, Ryusuke Higo, or pre-Shiratori Sumiko Kobayashi. Sakurako isn't a theory priority until a Sakurako-sized gap in the plot appears or she starts hanging out with more plot chars.

Exactly my point.

 

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Btw I just realized something funny. If one really wants to force Rumi into the dying message then there's the first half of the wing pattern missing. So what is the first half of "WING"? It's "W-I" of course! And piecing it together with the rest of the missing letters we get "WAKASA RUMI"! :P

GeqtzRg.png

Except...that's not a "wing"... it's "eyelashes"... :P

Another funny interpretation is "Asaca <3(heart) Rum" xD

(if "Asaca" was Mary, and "Rum" was Mr. Akai, would that mean "Asaca is married to Rum"? :P)

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8 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

Yes, for now. I think Asaka is Kohji's and Amanda Hughes' killer per Conan's suspicions and because it's the simplest theory to cover the facts we have available now. I also think he stole the dying message from the crime scene as a last minute clean up, thus causing his gender to be mistaken. That sort of trick would be very in line with the methods used in the several past "conflicting witness testimony" cases (there are at least 3 of them), and explains the reason Gosho made the unusual move of waiting to append that detail to the end of the case. It's possible for something more complicated to come up (like the Wakasa = Akasa theory above), but I'm not going there until there is a reason to.

 

I think the presence of the Black Organization at the songwriter murder case as well as Vermouth specifically asking a suspect why the song was spelt with a "Ca" rather than a "Ka" show that the Black Organization sees Asaca Rum as the correct decoding (and their motivation for investigating). It is possible the Black Organization is incorrect and the message is truly something else. If Kohji was trying to write Wakasa Rumi, I would have left the M behind turned upsidedown as a W by the mirror.

There are also more elements of the dying message scene that Conan may not have considered. There is "Juke Hot(el)" and the half a heart that looks like a cursive c.

For now though, I don't see a reason why the message is wrong. We have a pretty convincing answer (the BO's opinion!) that covers all the known info from the Kohji case so far, with no known contradictions that can't be explained. Same goes with Asaka=Rum. (We know Rum screwed up in the Kohji case because Gin bitched about it. Asaka killing Kohji and failing to clean up his dying message before pictures appeared seems like an appropriately large botch.) Leaping to alternate solutions just because something seems too simple or obvious can be even more perilous than taking something suspicious at face value. Oftentimes with Gosho, the simplest thing that explains all the events is the right answer.

 

While he has been right with them, Shinichi's/Conan's initial suspicions/impressions/theories are... well... not always on the mark (Shuichi is a BO mole in the FBI; Eisuke is a BO agent; Rena Mizunashi killed Hidemi Hondo, then had plastic surgery to look like her; the CIA were looking for Kir at Haido Central Hospital). Sometimes, he needs additional info to realize his thoughts, initially, were lacking—that's when he gets to the truth, in those times when he's initially wrong.

 

We're on case #21 of the Rum arc, right now. Other than the Sherry/Haibara arc and the Cell Phone arc (both 17 cases), all but one of the arcs were over twice as longer than that (Kir arc: 37 cases; Intro/Conan arc: 50 cases; Vermouth arc: 58 cases; Bourbon arc: 80 cases). In the cases of the Vermouth, Kir and Bourbon arcs, it took well beyond Case #21 until Shinichi/Conan had all the info he needed to reach the correct conclusion—I don't think it'll be any different, here (meaning, Shinichi/Conan will re-assess this initial conclusion of his at a later date and come to a different conclusion).

 

Maybe he did. We only see pictures of the mirror, and thus, the letters he didn't cut out. Maybe that's how he sought to get past the "There's no W in 'Put on Mascara'" problem.

 

8 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

It is possible the Black Organization is incorrect and the message is truly something else.

 

Perilous? If Asaka really is Rum and is not Rumi, then I'm wrong, and that's that... it'll have been my third choice, which I considered unlikely, but possible.

8 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

In terms of current plot relevant chars, Sakurako has only appeared with Shuukichi, but nothing has happened to indicate we should be suspecting her of being related to anything. Tomoaki appeared with Jodie and Haibara and Shinichi in Desperate Revival, then Akai and Jodie and Haibara in the busjack. Busjack was when Haibara's senses went nuts and told every sensible reader that Vermi was Jodie, Akai, or Tomoaki. We don't have the equivalent of a "Vermouth on a bus. Three suspects. Which one?" moment right now. We have a dozen+ recent recurring chars, a vague description of Rum, and some unconnected backstories. Sometimes background fluff characters get introduced like Azusa Enomoto, Yoko Okino, Hideo Akagi, Ryusuke Higo, or pre-Shiratori Sumiko Kobayashi. Sakurako isn't a theory priority until a Sakurako-sized gap in the plot appears or she starts hanging out with more plot chars.

 

Currently, right now, yes—she's not a priority for those engaging in theory-crafting. But with how slow things have been, the past 9 years, I think we are going to see that moment come, most likely during this arc.

 

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57 minutes ago, DCUniverseAficionado said:

Currently, right now, yes—she's not a priority for those engaging in theory-crafting. But with how slow things have been, the past 9 years, I think we are going to see that moment come, most likely during this arc.

Let's hope that happens.

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" Sakurako has only appeared with Shuukichi "

Thats right to a certain point, but..

its quite worth noticing that Sakurako actually appeared in cases other potential Rum-chars were in as well.

 

First app -> Kan + Komei

Sec app ->  Shuukichi

3rd app -> Kuroda

 

 

Also its quite funny that more or less those 4 chars probably would be count to the main-suspects for the common reader to be Rum. 

(If Gosho himself wouldnt have discount Kan-Chan) (obviously Mary is missing).

As if Gosho wants the common reader to remember the mentioned cases for having the main-suspects in it - and not Sakurako.

For me as the biggest screamer of her being Rum are the recurring (one)-eye-innuendos the biggest hint as well as her being near Shuukichi (Marys Son?!) 
and afterwards in a hotel (guess who lives in a hotel, right, Mary). 

 

Prediction 1 : Next time she appears will be in a case Sera or Mary will be in. 

Prediction 2: Since i believe Chapter 1000 will be something special -> 

980 - 995 the above mentioned Chars we re-appear and

995-1000 and further will be a story of Rum appearing for the first time (as a shadow of silhouette) and try (and fail!) to kill Mary.

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, MeiTanteixX said:

you might've noticed if you've read my fan manga, but I don't agree with this. There are numerous hints pointing to that she never intended to get close to Haibara when she joined Teitan and she never knew of Sherry's whereabouts(or shrunken state) until much later:

Vermouth found out Conan was Shinichi and Ai was Sherry at the Mourning Party. The most direct and obvious hint is that she told Vodka after the resolution of the Hyde City Hotel case that there is something "unsettling" on her mind and that a sudden reason to stay in Japan had come up. It's not like she could explain to Vodka what she saw, but it is the only reason that makes perfect sense. Pisco spotted Ai and Conan was right near Ai when that photography situation occurred, so there is no reason Vermouth didn't spot the same. Conan also took off his glasses and gave them to Haibara. Why did Gosho have Shinichi do that? To give Vermouth a reason to recognize Shinichi right away by removing his one mediocre defense against being recognized! The FBI hadn't made any moves on Vermouth at that point. The absolute proof is that Vermouth was unaware of Jodie's fake death plan for Araide when they discussed it at the shipping yard, she found the FBI were after her when they broke in her office but not before. Thus the FBI can't be her reason for staying in Japan. That leaves Conan and Ai.

 

The other thing that strongly points to Vermouth knowing from the beginning is that she chose to replace Araide after the Hyde City Hotel case and before the Mistaken Detectives case, when Ran said that Araide had transferred from the basketball to drama club. That's pretty much right away. Knowing the kids' identities from the beginning is the only explanation that explains why Vermouth had to take the massive risk of replacing Araide instead of doing the easy thing and creating a new character.

Vermouth had three goals: put herself in a position where she can 1) manipulate Ai and Conan without suspicion, 2) kill Ai while leaving Conan and Ran alone. Joining the school as someone who regularly interact with kids would be best, so she would want to be a teacher or a school nurse. But here is the thing, it is way easier to come up with someone new than to replace someone pre-existing who has many relationships and a complex specialized skillset. Replacements get caught if you mess up, whereas new people have no attached expectations. That is why most of Yukiko's disguises are randoms and not copies. Even Kaitou Kid who has magic masks tends to become random police or civilians when he needs to make a quick getaway or scout. That makes Vermouth's choice to replace Araide, a doctor with many contacts, relationships, and highly specialized knowledge, very strange unless Vermouth had established goals from the beginning - getting close to Ai and Conan. She replaced Araide because she needed to be extra sneaky: if Haibara reacted, Conan would suspect new people first. Araide has a history with the school, so is less suspicious.

 

A key point is that many people don't realize is that Vermouth was lying when she told Jodie that she needed the FBI to find Shiho. She already found Shiho. Part of the first half of the confrontation and all those office scenes were an act for the FBI in order to manipulate the FBI's movements. Her office space had been invaded so it couldn't be considered private anymore. Anything said aloud or written or left out visible risks being intercepted. The FBI bugged Agasa's phone to listen in on Araide's conversation, but Vermouth knew it was bugged and used the situation to her advantage. Vermouth left the picture of Shiho in the office so she could eventually set up the scenario where Jodie grabs Ai as a lure, takes her to a secluded place thinking her FBI comrades were going to get Vermouth too, but Vermouth would turn the tables and kill the lone Ai and Jodie with help from Calvados. She admitted she had been planning this grand movement since after the Mysterious Passenger. She tried to get close to Conan and Ai on a bus but Jodie (with Akai as backup, so it must have been a move the FBI sensed as serious) blocked her. After that she stole and returned Mouri's case files to lure out the FBI as explained in the confrontation case.

In the busjack, I don't know if Vermouth was actually planning on making a move on Ai, or if she was trying to figure out how much the FBI could find out about her actions and thus how badly her security is compromised, or both. I do know Akai doesn't know about Ai yet at the end of the case because he says that the target, as in Vermouth's target Shiho, never showed. Jodie seems to start to figure things out though.

 

The second part is that Vermouth can't admit that Shiho shrunk into Ai. She is trying to protect the secret of the two kids shrinking/not aging pretty desperately from anyone, including other BO, for reasons we still don't know for sure but can kinda guess at (Conan = one of her two angels is part of it). She didn't tell Jodie anything when Jodie interrogated her on why she was targeting a child that looked like Shiho, or why Conan was "cool guy" and not "cool kid", or why she wasn't aging. There's no way Vermouth is going to directly admit to Jodie that she knew Shiho is Ai, because that would confirm the shrinking. That seems like a minor technicality because Jodie is almost at the truth, but that's how it is for Vermouth; she doesn't give even an inch on those topics.

 

In the hints you cited, first you must be aware that the office scenes are not chronologically concurrent with the current timeline. Gosho was being especially tricky, hoping the reader would assume the office scenes were concurrent with the other events. They are not concurrent and there is 100% proof that at least one of the office scenes occurs long before it was shown in the manga. In Jodie's intro case (272), she calls Conan "Cool Guy" meaning she saw the pictures prior to her intro (270). Jodie in 433 described the picture of Shiho as pinned to the dartboard with a dart meaning that the office raid came after Vermouth threw the dart at Shiho's picture. Even though Vermouth is shown throwing the dart into Shiho's picture in the office scene from 340, it must have occurred before Jodie's intro case (270). Also it is unlikely Vermouth has thrown more than one dart and then removed it later because there are no other dart-holes.

 

Second, Vermouth lies a lot. When she tells Gin or the FBI she hasn't found what she is looking for, keep in mind she doesn't trust them. Actionwise, Vermouth seemed to know where Conan and Ai were from the start, and in DC actions speak louder than words.

 

Thirdly, I explained above that her office has been invaded soon after she became Araide. Theatrically announcing she was coming for Ai could very well be for the FBI's benefit since she knew her security had been compromised in some way and they were watching her. Therefore we can't trust what Vermouth says too much in those scenes.

 

8 hours ago, DCUniverseAficionado said:

Perilous? If Asaka really is Rum and is not Rumi, then I'm wrong, and that's that... it'll have been my third choice, which I considered unlikely, but possible.

It really is though. I've watched the entire Bourbon arc play out the internet from Red vs Black to Rum in English and in German. The people who insisted on complexity from the beginning before there were reasons to are the ones who later got wed to their theories and if/when those failed preferred to jump ship to similarly over-complex ones because they got into a rut by insisting the simpler versions were wrong. The German forum had an especially hard time of this with the hyper complicated Shuuichi Akai is Bourbon and then later Akai is a double agent working for the BO theory. I'm not saying that you can't play with ideas like Asaka is Rumi or Mary right now, but I see signs that you and MeiTanteixX are going beyond playing and looking clingy. I'm worried that it's going to define you and prevent you from being able to backtrack if/when the time to jump to a new theory ship comes. The vanilla default is still reasonable, and Gosho can take the arc in a different direction than you anticipated.

 

10 hours ago, MeiTanteixX said:

I'd find it odd if the BO couldn't at the very least figure out the possibility that it might be saying "Asaca Rum"(like how Conan and Shuu did).

They do know! That's why Vermouth and Bourbon went to the concert and Asaka ran off with the mirror. I explained that above in the section you quoted.

 

@dccd

its quite worth noticing that Sakurako actually appeared in cases other potential Rum-chars were in as well.

 

But not with them at the same time. That's my important distinction.

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19 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

Vermouth found out Conan was Shinichi and Ai was Sherry at the Mourning Party. The most direct and obvious hint is that she told Vodka after the resolution of the Hyde City Hotel case that there is something "unsettling" on her mind and that a sudden reason to stay in Japan had come up. It's not like she could explain to Vodka what she saw, but it is the only reason that makes perfect sense. Pisco spotted Ai and Conan was right near Ai when that photography situation occurred, so there is no reason Vermouth didn't spot the same. Conan also took off his glasses and gave them to Haibara. Why did Gosho have Shinichi do that? To give Vermouth a reason to recognize Shinichi right away by removing his one mediocre defense against being recognized! The FBI hadn't made any moves on Vermouth at that point. The absolute proof is that Vermouth was unaware of Jodie's fake death plan for Araide when they discussed it at the shipping yard, she found the FBI were after her when they broke in her office but not before. Thus the FBI can't be her reason for staying in Japan. That leaves Conan and Ai.

I never claimed that She never saw shinichi(I thought was pretty clear through my manga too). Before I get into the details of your interpretation, I have to state the big difference in our reasoning. the one underlying difference is regarding the vermouth scenes! I, personally, don't agree with the whole "Vermouth scenes are not placed chronologically in the timeline!" or that she was constantly lying!

 

According to your reasoning, she saw Ai on the party. If she knew where to find Haibara, she would've taken action a lot earlier than the actual confrontation. This is proven by Conan's own thought process later on in File 458(which is 100% reliable when it comes to picking up odd/out of place events). That scene in File 458 started with him wondering "It would have been enough for Vermouth to disguise as someone from Teitan High if she thought that Sherry(adult form) was there"(1) and ended with the question "Why couldn't she find Haibara in Teitan Elementary, if she already knew of the possibility that she had shrunken?"(2). The only answer to the first question(1) is that She intentionally chose Araide because he goes to both of the schools, and the one link to those schools are her two treasures, Shinichi and Ran. The fact that the whole case(File 457-459) ended with Araide doubting Vermouth's threat(because of her constant act of kindness as Araide) might also be an indication that Vermouth intentionally chose Araide because he is a doctor, which gives her the opportunity to fulfill her beloved treasures' will(helping people with no ulterior motive other than doing good and probably also to redeem herself).

There is a simple answer to the second question(2), which is not that she was just waiting for the right moment(otherwise, Gosho wouldn't address this question through Conan to begin with), but that Vermouth was never looking for Sherry when she joined Teitan to begin with! This is a strong indication that when she found Sherry in File 422, she truly must have found her then, which in turn would prove that the Vermouth scenes follows the chronology.

 

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The other thing that strongly points to Vermouth knowing from the beginning is that she chose to replace Araide after the Hyde City Hotel case and before the Mistaken Detectives case, when Ran said that Araide had transferred from the basketball to drama club. That's pretty much right away. Knowing the kids' identities from the beginning is the only explanation that explains why Vermouth had to take the massive risk of replacing Araide instead of doing the easy thing and creating a new character.

First of all, it was Sonoko that mentioned Araide transferring and that was during Jodie's intro. Ran only said that Araide was gonna help directing the play. Secondly, Ran and Shinichi(who for some reason has shrunken) alone is enough reason to disguise as Araide, which of course is something she did right away!

 

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Vermouth had three goals: put herself in a position where she can 1) manipulate Ai and Conan without suspicion, 2) kill Ai while leaving Conan and Ran alone. Joining the school as someone who regularly interact with kids would be best, so she would want to be a teacher or a school nurse. But here is the thing, it is way easier to come up with someone new than to replace someone pre-existing who has many relationships and a complex specialized skillset. Replacements get caught if you mess up, whereas new people have no attached expectations. That is why most of Yukiko's disguises are randoms and not copies. Even Kaitou Kid who has magic masks tends to become random police or civilians when he needs to make a quick getaway or scout. That makes Vermouth's choice to replace Araide, a doctor with many contacts, relationships, and highly specialized knowledge, very strange unless Vermouth had established goals from the beginning - getting close to Ai and Conan. She replaced Araide because she needed to be extra sneaky: if Haibara reacted, Conan would suspect new people first. Araide has a history with the school, so is less suspicious.

As I've stated before, Haibara was never a part of her plan at the beginning.

There's no evidence to Vermouth being aware of Haibara's senses.

 

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A key point is that many people don't realize is that Vermouth was lying when she told Jodie that she needed the FBI to find Shiho. She already found Shiho. Part of the first half of the confrontation and all those office scenes were an act for the FBI in order to manipulate the FBI's movements. Her office space had been invaded so it couldn't be considered private anymore. Anything said aloud or written or left out visible risks being intercepted. The FBI bugged Agasa's phone to listen in on Araide's conversation, but Vermouth knew it was bugged and used the situation to her advantage. Vermouth left the picture of Shiho in the office so she could eventually set up the scenario where Jodie grabs Ai as a lure, takes her to a secluded place thinking her FBI comrades were going to get Vermouth too, but Vermouth would turn the tables and kill the lone Ai and Jodie with help from Calvados. She admitted she had been planning this grand movement since after the Mysterious Passenger. She tried to get close to Conan and Ai on a bus but Jodie (with Akai as backup, so it must have been a move the FBI sensed as serious) blocked her. After that she stole and returned Mouri's case files to lure out the FBI as explained in the confrontation case.

In the busjack, I don't know if Vermouth was actually planning on making a move on Ai, or if she was trying to figure out how much the FBI could find out about her actions and thus how badly her security is compromised, or both. I do know Akai doesn't know about Ai yet at the end of the case because he says that the target, as in Vermouth's target Shiho, never showed. Jodie seems to start to figure things out though.

When she revealed to Jodie that she was trying to lure the FBI into finding Sherry, she was holding Jodie at gunpoint, with no FBI allies close by and Calvados as her backup. By that point, she had no reason to lie and withhold too much info. Also, there was no reason to deny that Haibara(in other words, the woman in the photo) was her target, since she had no intention of hiding it when she outwardly said "Sherry" and was about to shoot Haibara in front of the wounded Jodie, minutes later. The FBI never bugged Agasa's house(at least not until Jodie arrived there), but rather Araide's(probably during their break-in).

 

There's no indication that she was on the Bus to follow/get close to Haibara. Since she stole the police files directly after the Bus hijack, her true objective for entering the bus could have been to go to the police station in order to steal Araide's files to prepare for court, but then decided to take all of mouri's files(since she probably figured out that the FBI was after her in the Bus) and put her FBI-trap-plan in motion. By luring the FBI to the Mouri agency, she was able to find out about their break-in plan and from there on use the FBI to find Sherry. Akai's words was directed to Vermouth herself, since she is the FBI's target, meaning that Vermouth never revealed herself and took action against one of her targets that was there, "Cool guy"(in fact, she protected him, which left Jodie confused).

 

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The second part is that Vermouth can't admit that Shiho shrunk into Ai. She is trying to protect the secret of the two kids shrinking/not aging pretty desperately from anyone, including other BO, for reasons we still don't know for sure but can kinda guess at (Conan = one of her two angels is part of it). She didn't tell Jodie anything when Jodie interrogated her on why she was targeting a child that looked like Shiho, or why Conan was "cool guy" and not "cool kid", or why she wasn't aging. There's no way Vermouth is going to directly admit to Jodie that she knew Shiho is Ai, because that would confirm the shrinking. That seems like a minor technicality because Jodie is almost at the truth, but that's how it is for Vermouth; she doesn't give even an inch on those topics.

By that point when she said that she was expecting that the FBI would find Sherry for her, like I mentioned before, Jodie was at death's door.

 

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In the hints you cited, first you must be aware that the office scenes are not chronologically concurrent with the current timeline. Gosho was being especially tricky, hoping the reader would assume the office scenes were concurrent with the other events. They are not concurrent and there is 100% proof that at least one of the office scenes occurs long before it was shown in the manga. In Jodie's intro case (272), she calls Conan "Cool Guy" meaning she saw the pictures prior to her intro (270). Jodie in 433 described the picture of Shiho as pinned to the dartboard with a dart meaning that the office raid came after Vermouth threw the dart at Shiho's picture. Even though Vermouth is shown throwing the dart into Shiho's picture in the office scene from 340, it must have occurred before Jodie's intro case (270). Also it is unlikely Vermouth has thrown more than one dart and then removed it later because there are no other dart-holes.

The fact that Jodie knew about "Cool guy" only proves that she saw "Cool guy" on the dartboard, and nothing else. From my understanding, FBI has broken into her room more than once in order to find clues to Vermouth's target. It would be absurd if they tricked her into disguising as Araide without attempting to know why. the first break-in happened after she started going to school(which by that point, "Cool guy" and "Angel" were her only targets, which is what Jodie witnessed). The other known break-in(who knows after how many attempts) was after she realized that the FBI was after her(post bus hijack) and she found out about their operations and locations(which is why the order of the conversation, in File 433 pg 11, went from Vermouth talking about "finding out about FBI plans" to directly telling jodie that "she already knew about the break-in").

to put it simply:

Before desperate revival:

- Vermouth joins school as Araide (pins photos of Conan and Ran on dartboard)

- Jodie breaks into her room (sees and takes photos of the photos and knows now who she should get close too)

After desperate revival:

- File 270, jodie is introduced and knows about vermouth's targets(talks to Akai about her current mission at the end of 272)

- File 287, bus hijack happens and jodie brings "the newly introduced Akai" with her in order to make sure that Their target doesn't take actions against "Cool guy".

- Vermouth figures out that the FBI are after her(during the hijack) and decides to steal all of Mouri's case files instead of just Araide's(probably her initial reason to entering the bus).

- File 327, James meets Akai(since he came back from the US to help Jodie) and knows about Vermouth's target "Cool guy".

- in File 330, Vermouth realizes that Conan is hiding sherry by piecing together Gin's description of the savior and Conan's voice-changing stunt!

- Before File 335, Vermouth sends back the files, after File 337, Vermouth tricks the FBI and finds out about their plan to break-in(Pins photo of Sherry into dartboard in order to use the FBI who will later see it).

- File 338, Jodie attempts to find out discreetly from Ran if she has witnessed Vermouth stalking her(Vermouth throws dart at photo at the end of 340).

- Break in happens! Jodie and Akai now know that Sherry is one of her targets(the clinic gets bugged).

- Akai sees Haibara at the end of the Itakura case(File 383).

- File 417-418, Akai Attempts to investigate her.

- File 420-422, during the Porsche case, Jodie sees Haibara, and at the end of the that case, Vermouth's finally finds Haibara and bugs Agasa's house(Burns Sherry's photo at the end of 422).

...the rest is history...

 

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Second, Vermouth lies a lot. When she tells Gin or the FBI she hasn't found what she is looking for, keep in mind she doesn't trust them. Actionwise, Vermouth seemed to know where Conan and Ai were from the start, and in DC actions speak louder than words.

In File 287, what she said was "I haven't found 'the one'", which was intentionally left ambiguous!(note that Gin and Vodka doesn't even know what she is looking for, so lying has no purpose there to begin with). As for who "the one" was, my interpretation to that is that she could be referring to 'the one' with the true potential of becoming her awaited "Silver Bullet".

As for the FBI, I don't know what scene you are referring to where she says that she hasn't found what she is looking for.

 

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Thirdly, I explained above that her office has been invaded soon after she became Araide. Theatrically announcing she was coming for Ai could very well be for the FBI's benefit since she knew her security had been compromised in some way and they were watching her. Therefore we can't trust what Vermouth says too much in those scenes.

And how did she know that?

It makes the most sense that she realized that the FBI was watching her when she had an opportunity to see Akai(someone she knows is from the FBI and who she met in NY), which is in the Bus hijack(Gosho intentionally chose these two to sit next to each other in robber disguise). That, in turn, lead to her being prepared to show the Sherry photo.

 

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It really is though. I've watched the entire Bourbon arc play out the internet from Red vs Black to Rum in English and in German. The people who insisted on complexity from the beginning before there were reasons to are the ones who later got wed to their theories and if/when those failed preferred to jump ship to similarly over-complex ones because they got into a rut by insisting the simpler versions were wrong. The German forum had an especially hard time of this with the hyper complicated Shuuichi Akai is Bourbon and then later Akai is a double agent working for the BO theory. I'm not saying that you can't play with ideas like Asaka is Rumi or Mary right now, but I see signs that you and MeiTanteixX are going beyond playing and looking clingy. I'm worried that it's going to define you and prevent you from being able to backtrack if/when the time to jump to a new theory ship comes. The vanilla default is still reasonable, and Gosho can take the arc in a different direction than you anticipated.

Well, I'd say you are worrying too much. I'm not blindly following one direction without considering another, and I'm pretty sure that goes for DCUniverseAficionado too!

What is the danger in possibly being wrong?

 

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They do know! That's why Vermouth and Bourbon went to the concert and Asaka ran off with the mirror. I explained that above in the section you quoted.

I said:

"I'd find it odd if the BO couldn't at the very least figure out the possibility that it might be saying "Asaca Rum"(like how Conan and Shuu did)."

(note the "If")

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This needs to be addressed first:

 

18 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

It really is though. I've watched the entire Bourbon arc play out the internet from Red vs Black to Rum in English and in German. The people who insisted on complexity from the beginning before there were reasons to are the ones who later got wed to their theories and if/when those failed preferred to jump ship to similarly over-complex ones because they got into a rut by insisting the simpler versions were wrong. The German forum had an especially hard time of this with the hyper complicated Shuuichi Akai is Bourbon and then later Akai is a double agent working for the BO theory. I'm not saying that you can't play with ideas like Asaka is Rumi or Mary right now, but I see signs that you and MeiTanteixX are going beyond playing and looking clingy. I'm worried that it's going to define you and prevent you from being able to backtrack if/when the time to jump to a new theory ship comes. The vanilla default is still reasonable, and Gosho can take the arc in a different direction than you anticipated.

 

"Perilous?" I'm sorry, but that's just hyperbolic.

 

I don't know how you came to the conclusion that I'm wedded to/clingy with "Rumi is Asaka," (or that Meitantei is wedded to/clingy with "Mary is Asaka") like I'm going to resent Gosho if he doesn't do it, or I'm actually going to be hurt. Like I won't be able to see the writing on the wall—those people you mention, here... are they still insisting that Shuichi is Bourbon, unable to accept the truth, saying that if their theory is wrong, then DC's not worthy of being read by them anymore? Is that what you think of me or Meitantei? I certainly hope not.

 

I'm the one who doesn't mind (and has even defended) Gosho's "vanilla" plot choices. I like the Bourbon arc, from Red, White, Yellow and the Detective Boys to Scarlet Showdown. I don't know why you've even begun to worry (Seriously, worry? Again, hyperbolic.)—I don't care if I end up having picked the wrong theory (and who knows? I might change my mind, as this arc progresses), because I'll just move on.

 

Bottom line—please don't think that I'm wedded to/clingy with "Rumi is Asaka," (or that Meitantei is wedded to/clingy with "Mary is Asaka") because we're not. End of discussion.

 

18 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

Vermouth found out Conan was Shinichi and Ai was Sherry at the Mourning Party. The most direct and obvious hint is that she told Vodka after the resolution of the Hyde City Hotel case that there is something "unsettling" on her mind and that a sudden reason to stay in Japan had come up. It's not like she could explain to Vodka what she saw, but it is the only reason that makes perfect sense. Pisco spotted Ai and Conan was right near Ai when that photography situation occurred, so there is no reason Vermouth didn't spot the same. Conan also took off his glasses and gave them to Haibara. Why did Gosho have Shinichi do that? To give Vermouth a reason to recognize Shinichi right away by removing his one mediocre defense against being recognized! The FBI hadn't made any moves on Vermouth at that point. The absolute proof is that Vermouth was unaware of Jodie's fake death plan for Araide when they discussed it at the shipping yard, she found the FBI were after her when they broke in her office but not before. Thus the FBI can't be her reason for staying in Japan. That leaves Conan and Ai.

 

The other thing that strongly points to Vermouth knowing from the beginning is that she chose to replace Araide after the Hyde City Hotel case and before the Mistaken Detectives case, when Ran said that Araide had transferred from the basketball to drama club. That's pretty much right away. Knowing the kids' identities from the beginning is the only explanation that explains why Vermouth had to take the massive risk of replacing Araide instead of doing the easy thing and creating a new character.

Vermouth had three goals: put herself in a position where she can 1) manipulate Ai and Conan without suspicion, 2) kill Ai while leaving Conan and Ran alone. Joining the school as someone who regularly interact with kids would be best, so she would want to be a teacher or a school nurse. But here is the thing, it is way easier to come up with someone new than to replace someone pre-existing who has many relationships and a complex specialized skillset. Replacements get caught if you mess up, whereas new people have no attached expectations. That is why most of Yukiko's disguises are randoms and not copies. Even Kaitou Kid who has magic masks tends to become random police or civilians when he needs to make a quick getaway or scout. That makes Vermouth's choice to replace Araide, a doctor with many contacts, relationships, and highly specialized knowledge, very strange unless Vermouth had established goals from the beginning - getting close to Ai and Conan. She replaced Araide because she needed to be extra sneaky: if Haibara reacted, Conan would suspect new people first. Araide has a history with the school, so is less suspicious.

 

A key point is that many people don't realize is that Vermouth was lying when she told Jodie that she needed the FBI to find Shiho. She already found Shiho. Part of the first half of the confrontation and all those office scenes were an act for the FBI in order to manipulate the FBI's movements. Her office space had been invaded so it couldn't be considered private anymore. Anything said aloud or written or left out visible risks being intercepted. The FBI bugged Agasa's phone to listen in on Araide's conversation, but Vermouth knew it was bugged and used the situation to her advantage. Vermouth left the picture of Shiho in the office so she could eventually set up the scenario where Jodie grabs Ai as a lure, takes her to a secluded place thinking her FBI comrades were going to get Vermouth too, but Vermouth would turn the tables and kill the lone Ai and Jodie with help from Calvados. She admitted she had been planning this grand movement since after the Mysterious Passenger. She tried to get close to Conan and Ai on a bus but Jodie (with Akai as backup, so it must have been a move the FBI sensed as serious) blocked her. After that she stole and returned Mouri's case files to lure out the FBI as explained in the confrontation case.

In the busjack, I don't know if Vermouth was actually planning on making a move on Ai, or if she was trying to figure out how much the FBI could find out about her actions and thus how badly her security is compromised, or both. I do know Akai doesn't know about Ai yet at the end of the case because he says that the target, as in Vermouth's target Shiho, never showed. Jodie seems to start to figure things out though.

 

The second part is that Vermouth can't admit that Shiho shrunk into Ai. She is trying to protect the secret of the two kids shrinking/not aging pretty desperately from anyone, including other BO, for reasons we still don't know for sure but can kinda guess at (Conan = one of her two angels is part of it). She didn't tell Jodie anything when Jodie interrogated her on why she was targeting a child that looked like Shiho, or why Conan was "cool guy" and not "cool kid", or why she wasn't aging. There's no way Vermouth is going to directly admit to Jodie that she knew Shiho is Ai, because that would confirm the shrinking. That seems like a minor technicality because Jodie is almost at the truth, but that's how it is for Vermouth; she doesn't give even an inch on those topics.

 

In the hints you cited, first you must be aware that the office scenes are not chronologically concurrent with the current timeline. Gosho was being especially tricky, hoping the reader would assume the office scenes were concurrent with the other events. They are not concurrent and there is 100% proof that at least one of the office scenes occurs long before it was shown in the manga. In Jodie's intro case (272), she calls Conan "Cool Guy" meaning she saw the pictures prior to her intro (270). Jodie in 433 described the picture of Shiho as pinned to the dartboard with a dart meaning that the office raid came after Vermouth threw the dart at Shiho's picture. Even though Vermouth is shown throwing the dart into Shiho's picture in the office scene from 340, it must have occurred before Jodie's intro case (270). Also it is unlikely Vermouth has thrown more than one dart and then removed it later because there are no other dart-holes.

 

Second, Vermouth lies a lot. When she tells Gin or the FBI she hasn't found what she is looking for, keep in mind she doesn't trust them. Actionwise, Vermouth seemed to know where Conan and Ai were from the start, and in DC actions speak louder than words.

 

Thirdly, I explained above that her office has been invaded soon after she became Araide. Theatrically announcing she was coming for Ai could very well be for the FBI's benefit since she knew her security had been compromised in some way and they were watching her. Therefore we can't trust what Vermouth says too much in those scenes.

 

All I'll say is that, unless you have a quote from Gosho in which he says, "Vermouth knew who Ai was from before the Four Porsches case," or this is unambiguously revealed to be the case later on in the story, this, to me, is just your interpretation of what Vermouth knew, during the Vermouth arc.

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I have been thinking about the fact that Mary appears to be older than Conan and Haibara does. If she also got shrunk, then maybe she got a different version af the drug. Haibara said that she had used parts old notes left from her parents' materiale to her own drug. So if Mary was a victim from the drug, then she might have gotten the version that Haibara's parents made. And that prototype didn't shrunk her as much as Haibara's prototype shrunk her and Shinichi, because Haibara made her drug in a different way than her parents did, since she didn't had much more than burn remains to work with.

And if Mary and Haibara really are related to each other, then maybe the reason they shrunk by the drug instead of dying, like most of the victims, might be genetic, that Shinichi also happen to have. Like some sort of gen that makes the drug react to make the body shrink instead of killing cells.

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What are all of the current big fan theories? Both the more obvious ones to conclude and the ones that take a bit of reaching.

the ones I can remember are: 

 

Asaka = Rum

Mary = Asaka

Wasaka Rumi = Asaka

Kuroda = Rum

Kuroda = Papa Akai

Papa Akai = Rum

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1 hour ago, Jimmy-kud0-tv2 said:

What are all of the current big fan theories? Both the more obvious ones to conclude and the ones that take a bit of reaching.

the ones I can remember are: 

 

Asaka = Rum

Mary = Asaka

Wasaka Rumi = Asaka

Kuroda = Rum

Kuroda = Papa Akai

Papa Akai = Rum

 

I'll amend two of these...

 

Pre-Coma Kuroda = Rum

or

Post-Coma Kuroda = Rum

 

and

 

Post-Coma Kuroda = Papa Akai

 

As I see it, if Asaka is Rum, Hyoue is not Rum.

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13 hours ago, Rumia said:

Papakai = Kuroda : no because if he was in his adult form he would be killed by Rum

 

Except that requires the assumption that (if Mr. Akai is Post-Coma Hyoue) Post-Coma Hyoue looks like Mr. Akai.

 

We don't know what Mr. Akai looks like, now—neither do we know what he looked like, 17 years ago.

 

And another thing... if Mr. Akai shrunk due to APTX, then how old would he be, 17 years ago, just after he took it—according to you, that's when he took it, right?—and how old would he be, now? I doubt he'd be a kid—he'd be in his 20s or in his 30s, if he was an APTX victim, 17 years ago.

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Rum=Wakasa because I think I know the link with the boss, Wakasa drank the poison of shiho parents and this poison is to shrink the older people of the people who has almost 20 years and this is probably the poison that have drank Vermouth the boss and Asaca

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4 hours ago, Rumia said:

Rum=Wakasa 

 

Shiho's/Ai's BO sense was never triggered during that case (File 966–File 968).

 

More importantly, she's seen Shiho/Ai and Shinichi/Conan, not only up close, but for extended periods of time. If she's Rum, she should especially know what Shiho Miyano looked like at 7 or 8.

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12 hours ago, Rumia said:

No , Gin would hunt down Shiho

 

You miss the point.

 

The moment Rum realized Ai Haibara was Sherry, it wouldn't be long before Rum arranged her death, if not simply kill her on the spot.

 

So unless the next time Rumi appears, we see the BO not only believing that Sherry didn't die during Mystery Train, but knowing where and even who she is, Rumi's not Rum.

 

12 hours ago, Rumia said:

Asaka vould hunt down Mary ,everyone has his target

 

A target of the BO is a target for any one of it's members. There's no rule that only a certain member can go after a BO enemy.

 

Look at Shuichi, pre-Clash of Red and Black. Whose target was he? The entire BO's.

 

Here's the info on the Rumi is not Rum theory from the DCW wiki:

The name "Wakasa Rumi" is suspiciously similar to the dying message "ASAKA RUM" that Kohji Haneda left when he was killed 17 years ago.

Rumi is unlikely to be Rum because the Black Organization has no motive to draw attention to "Asaka" or "Rum", Haibara did not react to Rumi, and Rumi does not appear to have any vision problems that would suggest a false eye. 

There is no apparent benefit the Black Organization would gain from publicly flaunting the names "Asaka" or "Rum", which can be linked to Kohji's murder. The Black Organization appears to want to cover up anything related to Rum and Asaka since they have sent Vermouth and Amuro to investigate possible references to it, and someone with significant reach is actively scrubbing the internet of information from the past murder case. It would also not make sense for the vital number two of the Organization to flaunt their identity where FBI agents have worked previously and risk being captured. 

Haibara directly interacted with Rumi, yet Rumi did not trigger her ability to detect Black Organization agents. Rumi did not appear to recognize Haibara either, instead focusing her attention on Conan.

Rumi's actions, while perhaps intentionally clumsy, do not show she has any vision problems. Most importantly she demonstrated that she has functional peripheral vision on both her left[1] and right[2] sides. This strongly implies both of her eyes are intact because someone with a false eye will lack peripheral vision on one side.

While Rumi is feminine and her brawling strength could be mistaken for a healthy man's, she does not seem to have any characteristics that would cause people to mistake her for an old man.

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After the flashback case, I'm now leaning more towards that Rumi is Asaka, Tsutomu was the CIA agent that investigated Amanda's connection to the BO(her investment), but ended up getting involved in Rum's confrontation with Kouji.

 

A quick follow-up prediction...

 

This might've lead to Rum fighting Tsutomu, but ended up being forced to flee, and Tsutomu tried running after him, but lost him and had to then hide(he couldn't risk that a BO member infiltrated the CIA and would kill him the first chance they get to silence him). He then sent the message to Mary for the family's safety's sake.

 

Kouji then left his dying message and died, and Rumi who failed to protect Amanda came to Kouji's room and took pictures. The hand-mirror was originally given to Kouji from Rumi(which is why she was seen with it). When Amanda met Kouji before her death, maybe that was when Kouji offered her "Asaka"(Rumi), and the maybe Asaka never confronted Rum because he secretly poisoned Amanda with the SB-prototype through her drink(?).

 

Rumi now wants revenge for her beloved Kouji and is testing Conan to see if he is capable to be involved and know something.

 

The CIA/FBI and Mary later found out that there was blood traces of Tsutomu(as a result from his fight with Rum) and they wondered what happened with his body(assuming that Tsutomu died).

 

Here's an interesting follow-up....

 

Later,...Maybe Tsutomu changed his identity and was able to fake his background, with Ethan's help, to become Kuroda Hyoue and join the NPA. 7 years later(10 years ago), he finally meets Rum again with his new identity, and clashes with him, which lead to the accident that took both Kuroda's and Rum's eye. Kuroda falls into a Coma and 10 years later, he is the superintendent of the first division.

 

This is the impression I'm getting from Akai's and Mary's conversation, as well as Tsutomu's message...

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2 hours ago, MeiTanteixX said:

After the flashback case, I'm now leaning more towards that Rumi is Asaka, Tsutomu was the CIA agent that investigated Amanda's connection to the BO(her investment), but ended up getting involved in Rum's confrontation with Kouji.

But Amanda had ties to the FBI and the CIA and not the BO. Why would she invest in the BO, when she already had close contact to both the domestic and foreign intelligence services of the US?

Let's propose she really did some kind of investement into the BO (to which we have absolutely no proof or even really hints of), then the only context in which that would make sense to me would be an investment as part of a plan to get closer to the BO by either the FBI or the CIA. If we assume CIA, then there would be no reason for Tsutomu (if he was indeed CIA) to investigate, but if you want to work him in there in this fashion, he might've been the agent that was in charge of supervising the operation. Though the whole concept of him being a CIA agent seems a bit off to me, since he was a Japanese man living with a British wife in England.

 

Somebody mentioned that Tsutomu looked like a stereotypical reporter in his outfit and I honestly like the idea of that more than the secret agent thing, probably because the story of a reporter being too curious for his own good and getting himself targetted hasn't been told in that form in DC before.

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