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Chekhov MacGuffin

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Posts posted by Chekhov MacGuffin


  1. 9 hours ago, Jimmy-kud0-tv2 said:

    Do we know for sure that the moment that Asaka was seen with the mirror was after the murders though? Couldn't Asaka or Amanda have had possession of it before hand, and Kouji just happened to have seen it and decided to use it?

     

    I would think that Asaka would have fled rather quickly after realizing that two murders had taken place and fear the possibility of being blamed for them. Rather than standing around in the hallway and being caught looking into a broken hand mirror and being witnessed by someone. 

    I didn't even consider the possibility that Gaito could have been referring to a moment before the crime. I think it makes more sense that Asaka would have grabbed the mirror post-Kohji-mortem out of fear of being implicated or because he/she didn't want the real murderer to destroy the clue (figured the mirror was a dying message but not sure what it said?), but I cannot find fault with the possibility you presented. I'll keep it in mind when more details of the case come out.

     

    I do think it was Kohji's mirror though for feelings-based reasons. Haibs said her mother had one of those "put on mascara" mirrors, which Akemi later took possession of. (948.5) Everyone and their ninja-clinging, neck-chopping, tea-drinking mamas knows Gosho is going to make Mary and Elena the sisters who are mothers. I know having hunches based off of throwaway lines is completely bad form, but both moms having the same mirror which was passed to someone they care about is in character for Gosho (reasonably assuming the Haneda family and the Akai family knew each other beforehand).

     

    Quote

    Plus, who says that Hotta, himself, saw that?

    @DCUniverseAficionado, I noticed how vague Gosho was being with that case. There is no evidence or statements that Hotta Gaito was even at the Kohji crime scene. I feel like if he was then it would have been mentioned. Vodka or the culprit would have said something. I suspect Gaito may have heard this info on Asaka secondhand from someone, but who, if not the website?


  2. On 5/14/2017 at 10:11 PM, AnimeOtakuDrew said:
    Quote

    There's no info in the website that would be exclusive to the law enforcement agencies. Like Agasa said, there was "minute-details" in it, implying that it's info that only someone that was there could get.

    I remember that it said that, but I could have sworn that it was also stated that the case files were put online as well. I could be mistaken about that. My memory is far fro infallible.

    Super late reply, but Asaka was reported as being seen with a small handmirror by the "Soul Detective". If (a big if, but we know of no other mirrors on the scene) that was Kohji's PTON clue mirror, then the pictures of the crime scene had to have been taken before Asaka did any mirror snatching. That is something to consider.


  3. @ValentinI was convinced, then you used "anaphoric", and then I became even more convinced.  :P

     

    I think there are a few facts about the Kohji case which are worth mentioning.

    • Amanda was definitely in Kohji's room at some point. Her fingerprints on his sofa are the best evidence because moving a whole sofa is tough.

    • There were tea cups (ティーカップ), dishes (皿) (left off translation), forks (フォーク) which Amanda's fingerprints were found on in Kohji's room. All of this was in katakana, implying foreign-type dining I suppose. To me that implies a tea service may have been delivered at some point (Haibara speculated this) which came to be in Kohji's room. That would then imply a hotel staff member making deliveries (unless the bodyguard Asaka took over that duty.) There is at least one coming and going we should try to account for.

    • Conan says Amanda's fingerprints were found on the door knob (in katakana), using "nobu" which is different than a "handle". That is odd to me because most American hotels use handles, not knobs, at least on the main entry door. That might be relevant to any entry tricks.

    • The faucet in Amanda's room being left running, which was debated extensively up-thread.

     

    I think looking back at the Clenched Scissors and Clipped Glass Redux is extremely helpful as a guide for what Gosho thinks is possible and reasonable behavior for a criminal and victim in similar circumstances.

     

    In the case redux, the culprit Senba lured the victim Hiyama to a location of his choosing with a false pretense, the toilet room where the weapon was located. Senba then attacked Hiyama in the toilet room, delivering an initial head wound to Hiyama. Despite being a one-way exit (toilets almost never have two doors) and bodyguards present at the home, 61 year old Hiyama managed to escape 50ya Senba, but chose to shut himself in the adjacent bathroom with no exit, yet was not able to alert the bodyguards by yelling, banging on windows, or anything else a panicking victim might reasonably try (and we don't know if Hiyama tried). Senba broke into the bathroom (you can see the damage to the latch in 948.11). In that time, Hiyama cut the dying message knowing he would be killed. Hiyama fearing the message would be discovered if the the cut glass fragments were left obviously, and so chose to throw the leftovers at the culprit and make a mess to hide his message in. Senba then took a shower and pretended to find the body. (The wet slipper clue and purposeful stepping on the glass doesn't make much sense to me as described, and I'm not sure if it's a translation issue or a case logic issue. The shower and a towel/Senba's clothes being wet after the blood washing seems more pressing than any sandals being wet.)

     

    There are many conclusions about Gosho logic we can draw from this chain of events. Admittedly some is unusual in hindsight, but that's what we have to work with and we shouldn't expect the Kohji case to be logically cleaner than this one. Without further ado, Gosho thinks:

     

    • The victim's first reaction upon being attacked is fight or flight. Victims don't always make the optimal choice though. Hiyama fled to a room with only one exit instead of a different location with more escapes or somewhere he could alert his bodyguards from.

    • It's plausible for bodyguards not to be posted nearby relevant rooms and be out of earshot even if a fight, an escape, and a door breaking take place.

    • Bodyguards may have very selective hearing. They can hear a heavy ball thrown on a roof, but not a door being kicked in. They even went over to inspect the source of the sound which was near the crime scene - the toilet and the adjacent bathroom, but apparently didn't hear anything. The timing of their investigation might have been off relative to the killing, but still. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    • In fact, I'm plain assuming that Kohji's case may also involve "bodyguards" who may completely suck at their jobs and not do logical things like we think they ought to.

    • Cutting of glass can be done in the time it takes for an attacker to break down a door.

    • 948.11 shows Hiyama's hands, assuming he was right handed, not bleeding from the glass cutting process. It is possible to cut the glass in a rush without splitting your fingers.

    • A victim leaving a dying message in cut glass thinks it is logical to attempt to obscure the message if they think the attacker will have time to remove it. They may do this with more broken stuff.

    • A victim might agree to meet with a culprit he/she wronged and doesn't trust.

    • A culprit might be just fine taking his sweet time after the crime fixing things up if he thinks he is not going to be walked in on. And apparently bodyguards are predictable enough not to walk in on people.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

     

    If you try to impose the events of the recent case onto the Kohji case you run into contradictions.

    1. If you assume Kohji was attacked in his room, the crockery there knocked to the ground in the struggle, and he fled to Amanda's room, then you get the sink right but miss out on how he got back to his own room without getting caught by the attacker again who should be trying to break into Amanda's room to finish Kohji. No damage to Amanda's door was reported as far as I know. At best you could say Kohji escaped the attacker a second time and rushed back to his own room to hide the dying message among the broken pieces he knew would be there. You then have the weird problem of trying to figure out why Kohji was attacked if he was in his own room. If Amanda was killed in her room first, the killer would have known the sink wasn't running to begin with and found it weird Kohji turned it on. If Kohji was in his own room with Amanda who was the real target (as suggested), then Kohji's attacker should have found the tap running in Amanda's to be weird because who leaves their tap running when they leave their room?

    2. If you assume Kohji was attacked in Amanda's room, then the message should have been made in Kohji's room and his sink left running. The teaset in Kohji's room could be explained by them first being together in Kohji's room for tea, then moving together to Amanda's room for something else, which is when they were attacked.

     

    I don't expect the correct interpretation will be found by imposing the recent case solution onto Kohji's case. Gosho doesn't repeat crimes/solutions twice, and I feel like there may be a trap set for readers who try to do so. Enough of the circumstances are different --two victims rather than one, APTX 4869, and especially the Amanda tap issue-- so that we can't assume things may be the same twice. That said, I expect this case was introduced to set the stage for the Kohji case, thus preparing a base for the readers to build from (much like how Camel's fake death set up for Akai's fake death. Different solutions, many similar ideas). Potential ideas to play around in light of the Hiyama/Senba case are:

    • Kohji may have broken the crockery in his own room to hide the dying message, rather than it being broken in a struggle. If so, Kohji thought the culprit would have time to notice and clean up.

    • Kohji may have made the message in Amanda's room, but then returned to his own intentionally to make his final stand in order to have an opportunity to make a mess and then drop the mirror.

    • There may have been a period of time at the end of the murders where the killer could clean up, manipulate the scene, or rectify some errors. Even move bodies and such.

    • It's possible that Amanda or Kohji may not have been initially attacked in their own rooms.

    • The killer could have moved the crockery set between rooms, although I doubt he would break it.

    * APTX seems to do the job cleanly, so if the killer had time at the end of the crime, he could have moved a body back to their own room without leaving a trail of evidence. Kohji's body was bleeding slightly from fight damage, so may have presented some difficulty if it was moved.

    • Kohji and Amanda may have been in the same room together (Kohji's having tea), and both may have escaped the initial attack alive with Kohji taking the damage from fending off the attacker and escaped to Amanda's room.

    • If cutting the glass quickly in a rush does not leave damage to the hands, then Amanda may have cut Kohji's mirror and given it to Kohji who took the scissors to make sure the dying message was discovered. Not sure what this would achieve, but hey, worth considering.

    • If the killer had time to visit Amanda's room after Kohji died, then the killer must have had a misunderstanding and thought the tap was left on by Amanda or Kohji for a reason. This would most likely be the case if he had not seen Amanda's room before Kohji cut glass in the sink. Still it would be weird for the tap to be left on.

    • The sink could have been turned on after the killer left. (e.g. maybe Kohji and Amanda were both attacked and drugged with APTX in Amanda's room. Kohji survived, and after the killer assumed they were dead and fled made the message first in Amanda's room (because making the message is more important than hiding it when you can die at any moment), got back to his own room where there was crockery he can knock over to hide the message in, did so and hid the mirror among the pieces, then died.)

     

    I know we don't have proof of this, but all this room switching would make much more sense if Kohji and Amanda's room were in an isolated area, or there were adjacent balconies, or those family doors between the rooms I mentioned earlier. It's really hard to imagine all of this going down and people going between rooms via a hallway which might have witnesses in it.


  4. 16 minutes ago, gg1998 said:
    1. Haibara was asking Conan if the room which belonged to the wealthy person had similar impression to BO's mode of operation or not?
    2. Conan confirms her statement, then pauses, then says the taps were left running.
    3. Now taps left running can't be an impression of a neat and clean room.
    4. Okiya Subaru asks the Investigating Officer about whether the taps were running in the current case or not? The affirmative answer seemed to have taken him by surprise, he says that it's just like that case.
    5. A corpse with a pair of clenched scissors and taps were running in the bathroom where the corpse was found. This two points at Kohji's case not Amanda's.

    Freaking @Serinox made an appearance to weigh in. You have no standing to argue Japanese with Serinox unless you are secretly Yunnie-chan. (or Abs. I miss Abs. so much ;_; )

     

    The panel said the faucet is running in Amanda's room. It is what it is, unless Gosho overrules it with new info later. Yes, I think it's weird the faucet is running in Amanda's room and not Kohji's. That's why I took special notice, double checked the Japanese source, and why I made that first post saying you and MeiXx were out of line with the facts. For now, we should take the opportunity to figure out how to accommodate this with our theories.

     

    Quote

    3. Now taps left running can't be an impression of a neat and clean room.

    What you seem to be misunderstanding is that the translation is not "the room is perfectly neat and clean". The translation implies the situation in Amanda's room is more like "Amanda just dropped dead in the middle of doing stuff, leaving things as they were." It doesn't look like she was attacked, so the room is still orderly. The implication is that the sink was left running because Amanda dropped dead before she turned it off as if she died naturally. Contrast with Kohji's room where broken stuff littered the ground which was clearly unnatural.


  5. 55 minutes ago, MeiTanteixX said:

    @Chekhov MacGuffin as I said, I already confirmed it with Spimer, and Gent already had Wakarimashita's input and corrected it.

    Great, except I don't have a copy of this conversation, and really don't like hearsay on stuff like this. And again, I definitely don't at all buy that line's translation in this panel.

     

    Conan-proof.jpg

     

    I am good enough at Japanese to know this definitely is not literally correct. The translator had an incorrect source text, made a guess at the context, or had an additional source of information (Gosho note, later correction in chapter, etc.) that led to that edit. And regardless, it's no good to leave things as they are because if the translation deviates from the source material, there should be a stated reason that accounts for it that everyone should know. Accountability and standards of evidence and all.

     

    That's why I am saying we need a second opinion. I believe I have demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt there are potential issues with Gent's translation which need to be explained or addressed somehow.


  6. Just now, MeiTanteixX said:

    Exactly my point, meaning that it follows the M.O, unlike what is written in the Wiki.

     

     

    It IS switching, Because Haneda's room was Conan initial focus! Haibara side-tracked him with the Amanda-room-comparison, and after confirming Haibara's claim by saying "seems like it"/"Certainly", he keeps going with what he was reading about Kohji's room.

    Uh, I really don't think it says that. You can ask someone who knows better, but it's pretty clear that Conan is responding to Haibara, who was describing the "wealthy person's" (aka Amanda's room). This is the preceding line I mentioned above above the Bo's modus.

     

    Haibara: それより引っかかるのは荒らされたまま放置されたこの部屋・・・

    Haibara: 組織の仕業ならこんな事有り得ない何事もなかったように立ち去るのが彼らのやり方なのに

    Haibara: 実際,殺された資産家の部屋はそうだつたみたいだし

    Conan: 確かに洗面所の蛇口の水も出しつ放しだつたつて書いてある.

     

    Haibara: (Not confident enough to translate the first part.)

    Haibara: The Organization's way of doing things is to leave [the scene] as if nothing had happened. (Low confidence translation here)

    Haibara: In fact, the room of the wealthy person who was killed had a similar impression, right?

    Conan: Certainly, it says the water of the bathroom faucet was left running.

     

    What you seem to be misunderstanding is that "as if nothing had happened" is like "she just dropped dead in the middle of doing stuff, leaving things as they were." In this case the implication is that the sink was left running because Amanda dropped dead before she turned it off - hence as if nothing had happened (e.g. she was attacked).

     

    Again though, if you want an expert Japanese translator's opinion, feel free to ask Serinox, Yunnie, or whoever. I'm curious too. Gent does Indonesian <--> English as best as I know, which means that if the error was in place somewhere in the Japanese--> Chinese or Chinese-->Indonesian step, he wouldn't be able to catch it unless he consulted with a previous language translator.


  7. 2 hours ago, MeiTanteixX said:

    I'm relying on Spimer's and Gent's words. Spimer confirmed that Haibara never says "just as messy"(but rather is claiming that Amanda's room followed BO's M.O) and Conan says that Kohji's room has the tap open. Gent says that Wakarimashita corrected him and that the end-result is what is now written in Batoto. Looks like you are the one out of the loop.

     

    From the narrative of the case exposition and the "clenched scissor" case development, it makes sense too that Kohji used the tap in his room and that Amanda's room was successfully cleaned(which makes Kohji's death stick out even more). Otherwise Conan would've pondered on why Kohji was in Amanda's room when he cut the mirror.

     

    I don't know what to tell you except that I double checked the panel and it doesn't match what you say.

    kS8KBZX.jpg

     

    Haibara: 実際,殺された資産家の部屋はそうだつたみたいだし... (Jissai, korosareta shisan-ka no heya wa sōdatsuta mitaidashi.)

    Conan: 確かに洗面所の蛇口の水も出しつ放しだつたつて書いてある. (Tashika ni senmenjo no jaguchi no mizu mo dashitsu hanashidatsuta tsute kaitearu.)

     

    Haibara: In fact, the room of the wealthy person who was killed had a similar impression, right? ["similar impression" meaning like the BO's style mentioned in the preceding sentence from the previous panel]

    Conan: Certainly, it says the water of the bathroom faucet was left running.

     

    I'm not a masterful translator, but even I can see it doesn't obviously switch topics to "Kohji's room" or "Haneda Kohji" in that panel.

     


  8. @gg1998, there appears to be a loop you are completely out of.

     

    One, there are no official translations of these chapters until VIZ gets to it a decade from now or whenever that is.

     

    Two, that translation on Batoto was done by fans, and I actually know who these people are. This chapter (948) was done after the DCTP manga CnD. At the time this was going on, replacement scanlators were still trying to work things out. The Clenched Scissors case was translated from Japanese, into Chinese, into Indonesian, and then into English. Yeah. 3 languages before English. Not surprisingly, there were some things that were translated wrongly. (Hell, I am more impressed by how much was correct. The translators are awesome to maintain that level of fidelity after three rounds) But anyway, these errors were discussed extensively on the DCTP spoiler boxes, and elsewhere at the time.  I understand that not everyone got the memo.

     

    Three, in order to keep an accurate record, a page was created on the wiki, and with the help of those who have access to original Japanese scans, Japanese speakers, and others, the correct version of events was described. Most of it was little things, like Amanda being a "wealthy person", not an investor. However the state of Amanda and Kohji's room was incorrectly described. The true state of affairs is that only Kohji's room was messy and showed signs of a struggle; Amanda's was left like she just keeled over and died, and even the faucet was left running in it. So it was Amanda's room had the faucet on. Not Kohji's. (unless it wasn't mentioned by the mystery website maker.)

     

    Four, I highly encourage anyone interested in the Kohji case to check this page out: http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/wiki/Case_from_17_years_ago


  9. There is so much misinformation going on in this whole thread right now. Some of it is probably because the chapter went through three languages before it was translated into English leading to misunderstandings, but there appears to be a lot of misremembering too. Seriously, @MeiTanteixX and @gg1998 need to both go read the seventeen year old case wiki page. Part of the reason I bailed out on replying to either of you was because neither of you were putting in the effort to make sure your facts match manga. 

     

     


  10. The Facts: The next movie is set to feature Amuro. The Movie 21 teaser was seven-segment electronic display counting down from 5 with a metropolis in the background, and Amuro spoke the final countdown number Zero, a reference to the PSB.

     

    My Speculation: We will see the logical followup of the anime/movie introduced character development from Movie 20 that Rei Furuya knew Matsuda Jinpei from police academy, and learned bomb defusal from him. Someone who likes setting bombs with mysterious clues is gonna go nuts, most likely in Tokyo since that is PSB territory, and Conan, Amuro, and whatever characters of the day are being served will go put a stop it. The seven-segment display countdown is a reference to a bomb countdown display like most DC bombs use. If this is the case, I'd expect new character Hyoue Kuroda to take a front-seat role in the movie replacing Matsumoto as the shouty police pusher..

    • Upvote 5

  11. 2 hours ago, Jimmy-kud0-tv2 said:

     

    The only thing I have to say is that it might be better to stick to one name rather than switching between Ai and Shiho. 

    otherwise it looks pretty good. 

    Yep, that's a fixer. On it.


  12. I think something to be aware of for the Kohji case, keeping in mind we don't know much about the room layout or setup, is that it took place in an American hotel. Many American hotels have rooms with adjoining doors so that you can visit another room without going into the main hallway. They are intended for large families or groups staying in adjacent rooms. I think it is reasonable to consider theories where Kohji and Amanda's room were linked like this, especially since she intended to see him.

     

    traders-hotel.jpg

    See the pair of doors on the left? There's one for each side that can separately be locked. When both sides agree to unlock theirs, you can pass through without entering the hallway. Sometimes the gaps between the doors are quite large, other times they are small (especially for cheap hotels without good sound insulation.)


  13. Since the new plot developments with Kohji's death, I have very slowly worked on several APTX-related theory sections in prep for updating the main Chek's theories document.

    The two main endeavors are 1) the Unknown Drug page alleging the existence of a drug older than APTX 4869, Silver Bullet, and the Miyanos, which is still in need of additional content, and 2) A theory that Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet which adds additional nuance to my APTX purpose theory and attempts to reconcile the other drug Shiho was asked to develop and why the Black Organization is using an untested drug for killing.

     

    I'd like it if someone would "beta read" and make suggestions regarding the second theory (the X-Contamination theory). Here it is posted below.

    Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet

    It is known that the APTX 4869 of 17 years ago was used for murder[1] and that Shiho's current version of APTX 4869 is being used for the same purpose.[2] It is unlikely that the generally cautious Black Organization would use a custom drug for murder if they knew it had a chance of shrinking the victim and leaving them alive. It also doesn't make much sense that they would kill people using an in-development drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder[3] and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.

    This contradiction can be explained by the Black Organization mistakenly operating on the assumption that Shiho recreated her parents' APTX 4869 (which may have been tested in the past and found to kill exclusively). It is known that a lab fire destroyed most of Elena and Atsushi's drug project research. Shiho had to piece their research together from fragments. It is certainly possible that damage from the fire destroyed certain context clues that would allow Shiho to figure out which research belonged to the APTX 4869 drug, and which belonged to Silver Bullet. In resurrecting her parents' work, Shiho mixed the research together. This hybrid is the modern APTX 4869.

    Perhaps because the project took the name APTX 4869 rather than Silver Bullet and for the most part has similar deadly results, most of the Black Organization seems to have assumed that it is the same drug as before. Their ignorance can an least be partly explained by Shiho hiding certain results so that even executive members of the Organization were not aware APTX 4869 could cause de-aging.[4] It is possible Shiho may misinformed the Organization about the status of her recreation project, not having realized she had mixed the research until after the Organization intended to use it for killing.

    This mix-up explains certain conversations, such as the one with Conan about APTX 4869's history which implied the existence over another drug beyond APTX 4869.

    Haibara: And the fact that [Kohji Haneda's] name was on the list of victims who were given APTX 4869, I'd say there's a good chance that Asaka was one of the members of the Black Organization!
    Conan: I don't get it. Kohji Haneda was killed 17 years ago. Then why is his name under mine in the list?
    Haibara: Perhaps the person who compiled the list wasn't going by chronological order. Maybe it was sorted by blood type or something.
    Conan: Wait a minute, so the drug that I was forced to take existed 17 years ago? And you are its creator? How old are you really?
    Haibara: How rude. I've told you before. I am 18 now. Perhaps it was an early prototype of a drug made by my parents. The information for the drug that I created was mostly taken from the burnt remains of the data that my parents left behind.
    Conan: Burnt remains? What do you mean?
    Haibara: Well, the research lab that my parents worked in caught fire, and along with them, most of their research materials were burnt. I heard from the other members of the Organization that it was an accident.
    Well, what I was really ordered to make was another drug, however...

    Manga Volume 89, File 11 (948), Pages 3-4: "The Clenched Scissors"

    In this conversation, it makes the most sense that the Black Organization was hoping that Shiho would not work on the prototype APTX 4869 used to kill in the past and instead recreate her parents' final project Silver Bullet which seems to have fallen through (perhaps by catching fire) before being completed. They gave these orders unaware that Shiho actually did what they wanted her to do, which in turn explains why Shiho said that she did not intend to create a murder drug[3] and protested that the drug was used for killing. Instead, the Black Organization seems to mistakenly believe that Shiho had reassembled the prototype APTX 4869 of the past.

    This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.

    1. ^ Kohji Haneda's murder
    2. ^ Gin's attempted murder of Shinichi, Pisco's backup murder plot
    3. ^ a b Manga Volume 18, File 9 (179), page 9: "The Girl Made Of Lies"
    4. ^ Shinichi's survival for sure, and possibly the one shrunken mouse which was tested. The most significant proof is that no one has figured out Shiho shrank to escape her handcuffs and the locked room. Someone aware of shrinking results could easily extrapolate what happened.

     


  14. 13 hours ago, Shinan-Kudogawa said:

    More or less the order is right, but perhaps Rum did not know how many people were in the room, so he decided to wait on it since he heard no scream. Rather than exposing himself, he would wait for a minute maybe while texting someone. Kohji, for his part would want to hide the mirror in his already messy room since it wouldn't make sense for a cut mirror to be on his body or Amanda's. So he tries his best to hide it by moving to his room, for it is the best option he could've think so in his state. Rum also knows about APTX way of killing, so since he is short on time and don't want to implicate another culprit is involved in the crime by using a tool that is not compatible with Asaca (Asaca perhaps brought his/her weapon and  beaten Kohji with it, so using another tool would implicate another person. Hence it is best to use APTX in order to ensure nothing traces back to him).

    Those are all really reasonable explanations for the things I pointed out. I hope we learn more details of the Kohji case soon!


  15. 9 hours ago, Shinan-Kudogawa said:

    Regarding your first thoughts , I think that Rum didn't know about the intended crime of Kohji's. Here how it might've happened؛ Rum arrived to kill Amanda, however Asaca went on to kill Kohji. Rum having killed Amanda, he heard someone coming in so he hid in the room. Kohiji arrived having out run his killer and is leaving the evidence behind, however he witness Amanda's body and figure out it is Rum's doings since Amanda has already leaked to Kohji about the existence of Rum. So he leaves behind evidence regarding both Rum and Asaca, and just as Rum is about to come out and kill Kohji. Asaca arrives and beats Kohji, however Asaca hears Rum and quickly escapes  (it could be also that Kohji was attacked as he was exiting Amanda's room). Rum enters the room out of his hiding place, and thinks of blaming it all on Asaca. So he goes after the beaten Kohji whos crawling his way back to his room to hide his hints, Rum catches up and kills him using APTX 4869. However Rum fails at noticing the evidence left behind, and if Amanda and Kohji knew about Rum's existence then it is most likely Asaca knew as well. Thats why Asaca went into hiding, and why the BO freaks out about anything related to Asaca who knows about Rum and might expose his crime.

    I think that makes more sense. Correct me if I am wrong, but here's how I think you've ordered events.

    1. Amanda and Kohji meet at some previous time and Amanda tells Kohji about Rum. (Dunno why since Kohji is a just a chess/shogi player, but in Gosholand all sorts of weirdos turn out to be intelligence people.)

    2. Amanda is in her room and Kohji is in his. Asaka enters Kohji's room and Rum enters Amanda's room. This happens roughly about the same time. Neither are initially aware of one another.

    3. Rum kills Amanda. We don't know the method since that info was not given to us.

    4. At the same time 3 is happening, Asaka tries to kill Kohji, but it doesn't go so well. They violently fight it out, but before Asaka can finish Kohji, s/he hears Rum and flees [where?].

    5. Kohji escapes into Amanda's room while in a beaten-up state. Rum hears Kohji come in and hides (in the room?) somewhere.

    6. Kohji sees Amanda's body and suspects Rum (not Asaka) did it. He starts making a dying message in Amanda's room at her sink.

    7. Rum comes out of his hiding place, evaluates the situation, and decides to kill Kohji.

    8. Rum catches up to Kohji, who has undertaken the effort of going back to his room to leave the dying message, gives him APTX, and he dies.

    9. Rum doesn't notice the dying message and leaves.

    (10. Asaka returns to the scene of the crime and runs off with the handmirror.)

     

    If the setup is as you described, then parts 7-9 have the most problems. Rum was hiding while Kohji turned on the sink, made loud glass cutting sounds, and then held the mirror as he crawled back to his own room. Rum should have noticed that Kohji was prepping a dying message, even if he was out of line of sight while hiding nearby. Also, I am confused why Kohji needs to crawl back to his own room instead of leaving the message and his body in Amanda's room. Finally, if Rum wanted to keep his hands clean, I could see why he might use APTX, but it would fit Asaka's modus more if he just beat Kohji to death with something on hand like a chair. Overall this version is an improvement over the previous iteration.


  16.  

    3 hours ago, Chekhov MacGuffin said:

    My take on the case right now, not knowing much about the room setup, is that Kohji trashed his own room to hide his dying message after making it in Amanda's room. The way I see this roughly going down is:

    1: Amanda and Kohji were both "killed" in Amanda's room. After getting physically assaulted by Rum (explaining the face injures) to subdue him, Kohji was dosed with APTX. Rum took off or was otherwise uninvolved after this because he thought this part of his job was done.

    2: Kohji didn't die immediately. Instead, he cut the mirror he habitually carried with him at Amanda's sink with the last of his strength.

    3: Kohji went back to his own room for whatever reason, dropped the shards and the mirror, and chucked a bunch of stuff on the floor so the mirror wouldn't immediately be recognized as a dying message (thus preventing it from being tampered with in case his killer returned to the scene or had accomplices among the first discoverers).

    4. Kohji succumbed. There isn't much blood around his smashed up face because he died somewhere different than he was attacked.

     

    1 hour ago, gg1998 said:

    1) Kohji was found in his own room not in Amanda's.

    2) Kohji's body was found with bruises which can be caused if scissors are being gripped tightly. Now the question is whether he dies with the scissors in his hand or not. Probably not because the scissors were found lying around the crime scene, so the mess created in the bathroom of Haneda Koji can be explained, but the mess in his room is due to the confrontation between the killer and Kohji.

    3) Mary laughed off the notion that Asaka was a female carrying a hand-mirror as boring, so this implies Hotta saw a different woman who was also related in Kohji case but ont Asaka and/or Asaka wasn't a woman in the first place.

     

    Kohji_Hanedas_body.jpg

    >>>>953-14.png<<<<

    English Protip: Boring means "Uninteresting". Boring does not mean Wrong.

     

    gaston.jpg

    1fox.jpg

    http%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2Fwp-content%2


  17. 5 hours ago, Shinan-Kudogawa said:

    Regarding Rum, I'm suspecting the old blind man at the Kendo tournament.

     

    5 hours ago, Shinan-Kudogawa said:

    IRum having thought it out that Asaca is the killer, he inject the barely living Koji with the APTX 4869 and killing him with the finishing blow and blaming it all on Asaca. Rum's mistake is only the evidence left behind by Koji, who simply alluded to two different killers of him and Amanda ASACA and RUM.

    I like the creativity behind splitting the dying message into two parts, but this part seems like the weakest link in this theory. Why would Rum go out of his way to get involved in someone else's murder job? True, doing his murder while another is being committed so the other killer takes the blame is a viable strategy, but the problem is that this scenario as you conceived it doesn't achieve this objective. If Killer A kills Victim A, and Killer B kills Victim B, but Killer B wants to blame it on Killer A, then Killer B needs to make his murder look like Killer A's style, use the same murder weapon, disguise like Killer A, or something like that. If Victim A is Kohji and Killer A is Asaka, then Killer A is a messy incautious person. Killer B didn't match that modus operandi by killing Victim B (Amanda) so cleanly.

    The other weak point is how would Kohji have time to leave the dying message or even know that someone named Rum was going to kill him while he was lying there in a half-dead state, having already been thrashed by Asaka as you theorized? The cutting of the glass mirror requires concentration, time, and being able to stand at the sink in Amanda's room (the sink was left running in that room so it makes sense for Kohji to cut it there.) I could see Kohji pulling it off as a healthy young man dying of APTX slowly and pouring in his last strength, but someone beaten to hell and back would have a hard time.

     

    My take on the case right now, not knowing much about the room setup, is that Kohji trashed his own room to hide his dying message after making it in Amanda's room. The way I see this roughly going down is:

    1: Amanda and Kohji were both "killed" in Amanda's room. After getting physically assaulted by Rum (explaining the face injures) to subdue him, Kohji was dosed with APTX. Rum took off or was otherwise uninvolved after this because he thought this part of his job was done.

    2: Kohji didn't die immediately. Instead, he cut the mirror he habitually carried with him at Amanda's sink with the last of his strength.

    3: Kohji went back to his own room for whatever reason, dropped the shards and the mirror, and chucked a bunch of stuff on the floor so the mirror wouldn't immediately be recognized as a dying message (thus preventing it from being tampered with in case his killer returned to the scene or had accomplices among the first discoverers).

    4. Kohji succumbed. There isn't much blood around his smashed up face because he died somewhere different than he was attacked.

     

    One definitely half-baked idea I want to throw out there, as weird as it sounds, is that Kohji could have moved between rooms to protect someone who was secretly present at or present but incapacitated in one of the rooms as a witness. Rum didn't know that witness was there and committed the murders, but Kohji didn't want the innocent witness discovered and did the whole room switch thing to provide an opportunity for this person to mix in with the first discoverers and escape. Asaka is the most sensible candidate of course, but I can't explain why he/she would be hidden and not trying to smash Rum's face in as a bodyguard ought to save Amanda and Kohji. As for how Rum could have overlooked them... uh maybe he had a one eye problem and just totally missed them obviously because they were in his blindspot? That might explain how Asaka knows the killer has a fake eye/is blind on one side and gets triggered by half-blind people.... (kind of implying Asaka is Rumi here)


  18. 11 hours ago, gg1998 said:

    Then better discard it, just speculations, I think it became prominent with Invader Lum theory's propagation, where Rum is Lum, the daughter of Boss. Akai is Moroboshi the person whom Lum loves, Jodie is her love rival Shinobu. But somehow Lum's snaggletooth ended up in Sera's mouth.

    "The boss's ID will shock Haibara" existed since at least 2008 (e.g. late Kir arc), and most likely before, and is attributed to something called "Mysteries and Secrets Revealed! Volume 19: The Case Closed Casebook".

    Also, I'm am very concerned that someone is taking a theory involving Lum Invader seriously.

    • Upvote 1

  19. 1 hour ago, gg1998 said:

    I'm only saying that Rumi buying plates and cups after hearing about the trouble doesn't imply causation, we need more evidence to substantiate that Rumi bought plates only because she heard about this stuff. Causation based on order of events can constitute post hoc fallacy.

    Conan straight-up thinks Rumi called him over to encounter the murder mystery and he saw less of the situation than we, the readers did via 3rd-person omniscience. Rumi was all dressed and ready to go out and had no reason to be late to school, heard the convo between the soon-to-be killer and vic, then suddenly changed plans, went to a store to buy extra things in prep for the kids to come over, and was late to school. After the tiger shenanigans, she very, very conveniently invited the kids over at the time the murder plot was going to take place, which she overheard during the convo (e.g. paella dinner time). You can complain about figurative post hoc smoke not technically being correlated to fire all you want, but I'm just going keep pointing at the metaphorical firetrucks parked out front of this situation. Let me reiterate, Conan thinks Rumi prepared a setup so they would encounter the murder case. (File 987 pgs 5-6) Do you need Rumi to literally monologue her plans before you believe that she took advantage of an incoming murder situation to get close to Conan/see Conan in action?

     

    Quote

    Rumi mentioned that the tiger which she she used as a reference was in her home.

    So this is definitely truth and there isn't the slightest possibility that this is a convenient lie for her plan?

     

    Quote

    My argument is that Rumi shot a death glare to Kuroda even before he opened his mouth. Glaring at suspicious strangers isn't a sign of maturity. Shinichi and Haibara are both teenagers and Megure is an average policeman, none of them are cold blooded calculative minds. Let's assume can we imagine Gin doing the same thing? We can only compare oranges with Oranges, not with round stones.

    Your argument is essentially Rumi did one thing I thought was immature, so she might be a teenager in disguise.

     

    I can't take this seriously because it's ridiculous and shallow. I'm getting flashbacks to when someone seriously argued with me that Okiya can't be Akai because Okiya smiles too much.

     

    Quote

    I'm not making a claim that Rumi is Sera, I'm just playing around with the idea that there's a cunning Rumi an immature Rumi living in the same body. So I'm trying to get people who fits that profile, Sera seems to be one.

    Well, I'm going to be blunt. Rumi being Sera is a pretty bizarre and unlikely theory. I don't know why you'd invest so much energy in it. I think it's more likely that Wakita taught Amuro how to make ham sandwiches, but I'm not having a 10+ comment reply chain to chase that one.

    • Upvote 1

  20. 22 minutes ago, dclover12 said:

    gosho said that boss of black organizarion is not agasa. also gosho once stated that if haibara will come to know boss identity will get shocked that clearly states that boss is someone closely related to haibara. bt all her family members are dead. so why ghosho stated that "haibara" will get shocked. i mean to say that if boss is someone closely related to haibara then its clear that it will be closely related to conan also as he is closest to her after her family. bt y will only haibara get shocked why not conan. because it would hav been more convinient to say conan will be shocked rather than saying haibara will get shocked. so it only means that boss is edogawa conan. thats why gosho had to say that haibara will get shocked. also i think gosho said that boss is too clever and careful. we all know that the most careful and clever is conan.

    actually if conan is boss of black organization then it would be pretty interesting ending and somewhat sad. 

    There is a certain type of author that tries to be too clever and defeat all his readers by parading in a ridiculous ending that no one can see coming, but Gosho is not that kind of author. If you look at the normal cases and the arc cases so far, Gosho plays fair, and doesn't go too out of his way to be difficult or shocking. It's against Gosho's personality and writing style to choose a logic-defying twist ending where Conan is the boss.

    • Upvote 1

  21. 3 hours ago, Serinox said:

    Oh come on, Rumi witnessed the conversation, gave a sinister smile and then had one of her "accidents" again that would conveniently give Conan a reason to visit her apartment. She also hastily bought the cups, plates and food only after she heard the conversation, even coming late to school for that. You want it spelt out directly in her thoughts?

    Completely this. Rumi knew trouble was brewing with her neighbors. Banno Teigo had the conversation with Iiyama Kurumi in the hallway with the door open. Rumi could hear all of it. Kurumi openly demanded 100 million yen for as compensation for emotional harm because he was breaking up with her, and she threatened to sue him into oblivion. (That lawsuit would be totally laughed out of court btw.) Then Banno said "This meal will be your last" with a face full of malicious intent. By Detective Conan standards, he might has well been licking a bloody knife yandere style, that's how much "killing intent" there was going on.

     

    1 hour ago, gg1998 said:
    1.  
    2.  So can you definitely prove that it's not a post-hoc fallacy but a valid assumption?
    3.  But your assertion isn't immune to post-hoc fallacy but rather it's a prey of it. I fell prey to it so did you during the last chapter. So is it a problem for you to make sure that your theory should be immune to post-hoc fallacy?

    Veteran of internet arguments here. For fallacies to have weight, you need to be using them correctly. You aren't. Second, people who bring up named fallacies are almost always amateurs who are hiding the weakness of their arguments behind formal names. Seriously, in all the time I have been on DC forums, I think I have seen fallacies used correctly about twice. I'm pretty sure there is a fallacy for this, or at least a meme or two. If there is a problem with someone's argument, just spell it out instead of trying to dress it up with gratuitous latin.

     

    1 hour ago, gg1998 said:

    But if I say Rumi had an agenda to summon Conan, it was predetermined because Rumi knew on that day they would be doing the painting. When she heard the quarrel she smiled due to the sheer stupidity of the couple and it was a smile of pity.

    This is why you need to check the manga before you post. The timeline is like this - Rumi hears the conversation. It's very early which Kurumi mentions (979p3). Rumi realizes the killing intent, so then runs to the store and buys extra stuff because she knows she wants the kids to come over to witness the murder plot. (979p13) That makes her late to school which Conan notices. That day they are practicing for the play, which was decided in advance. However the props seem to have been built in class that day, including the tiger painting Rumi made. That explains the bucket of black (paint waste) water. Rumi painted her tiger with intent to wreck it later so she could have the kids over. So it's true the play prep was something determined to happen in advance. But the accident wasn't. That was something Rumi came up with after hearing the hallway fight. She even knew when the murder plan would take place because Kurumi and Banno talked about when they would meet for dinner. 

     

    1 hour ago, gg1998 said:

    I'll explain why, if your assertion is true then Rumi is a devious and cunning person who can let people get murdered to further her agenda. But the same Rumi gets triggered due to the mention of prosthetic, glares towards a suspicious man only to strengthen his suspicion. Which invalidates your claim, there's complete contradiction inherent in it.

    What claim is being invalidated here? What argument do you think Serinox is making? Because the last thing I saw Serinox saying was 1) that Rumi probably isn't Sera because that is a weird as heck idea that goes against their skills and personalities we have seen so far 2) Rumi was testing Conan at some point with the murder case.

    You seem to be arguing that Rumi is cunning and devious, but clearly is triggered by people with one eye/fake eyes/whatever to the point where she loses her composure. Okay? That sounds like a totally reasonable personality to me that's done often in DC. Conan keeps his cool normally but loses it with Ran. Ai keeps her cool but loses it with the BO. Megure keeps his cool but loses it when policewomen act as bait to lure in criminals. Maybe Rumi keeps her cool, but because of a traumatic experience in the past (Kohji case is obvious choice here) she loses her cool regarding eye problems.


  22. 6 hours ago, gg1998 said:

    I was thinking about the implications of Mary's caution. Is it probable for Sera to disguise as someone else and then approach Conan for his help during Koji case?

    Another point too, I'm also seeing a certain dichotomy in Rumi's behaviour she has great detective skills but won't hide her hatred to a suspicious one eyed person. Her glaring forced Kuroda to say that whether she's ok with the case being investigated by the police or not?

    Also Rumi mentioning that she's 10 years older than Kobayshi-sensei is kinda odd, firstly mentioning your age to your students is just plain stupid, secondly how did she know Kobayashi's age ?we also know that that the robbery case happened 10 years ago and Conan met Sera also 10 years ago.

    So can Sera be Rumi? What's your thought on this?

    @Serinox said what I wanted to say but I want to further emphasize there is a zero percent chance Sera is Rumi. Arc characters are more likely to be new in a new arc than recycled. What I am more weirded out by is why you think this is a viable idea at all. Your argument's premise is two random but true facts about Rumi: Rumi glares at Kuroda, and Rumi says she is 10 years older than Kobayashi, and then somehow these are supposed to provide meaning that Rumi is Sera. It doesn't make any sense at all. It would be like me saying Kaitou Kid wears white and he steals expensive things, so he dressed up as Gin and murdered Akemi.

    You have to provide on-topic evidence to make a point.


  23. Kaitou Kid's latest appearance in the Detective Conan manga was in mid June 2016. Kaitou Kid took some pictures that he wound up regretting and dealt with another Kichiemon contraption: a puzzle box.

    The previous Magic Kaitou chapter series, Midnight Crow, dealt with the return of Kuroba Kaito's father -- or someone who looks like his father. It was released October 2014ish I think? The current series, Sun Halo, is also a part of the Magic Kaito manga, not Detective Conan.

    You can find out more about Kaitou Kid on his wiki page: http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/wiki/Kaitou_Kid


  24. 7 hours ago, gg1998 said:

    In file 953, around the ending panels Mary cautions Sera about Conan by claiming that the later has changed over the period of 10 years. It's like encountering a demon in the darkness.

    • Probably the reason of her thought is Conan's manipulation of Kogoro for his own needs.
    • So does Mary think that Conan in future might use Sera as a mean to achieve his ultimate goals?
    • How is it going to affect Conan and Sera's relation?
    • Also Mary and Gin used exactly same proverb in that chapter, is there something common between Gin and Mary?

     

    Honestly Mary's probably just paranoid because someone attempted to give her a strange drug to kill her but turned her into a kid, which makes her question other strange children like Conan. I honestly think Mary's statement is about as profound as: "Gee, Conan now acts a lot older than he appears to be, probably because he is an adult turned into a kid. So, like, don't assume he will be the same as an actual 6-year old and underestimate him, I guess lol."

     

    Overall, this is one of Gosho's typical trash clues. Gosho's repeat tactic is making a suspect character seem malicious by having them say something vaguely sinister - in this case the same thing Gin said. Remember when lots of people thought there was a deep meaning to Okiya's creepier lines, but then they mostly all turned out to be complete throwaways that didn't warrant any explanation? I remember. The way you avoid falling for Gosho's trap is remembering that actions are everything, words are worthless. Mary was willing to confirm her presence, abilities, and knowledge to Conan by using the bowtie in front of him and taking out a culprit instead of letting him get away. That's an overall sign of trust, although she may not be willing to fully cooperate and exchange info. (Because when does an Akai ever share info? Younger sis doesn't even know older brother 2 plays shogi. Pretty unhealthy family dynamics there.)

     

    <hr>

    Quote
    • It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.
      • Sherlock Holmes, A Study in Scarlet , Part 1, chap. 3 - Arthur Conan Doyle (1887)
    • It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.
      • Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia - Arthur Conan Doyle (1891)

    All these speculations about Wakita being BO or whatever are premature. He has yet to do anything of importance and little that would give clues about his allegiance. It would be nice if everyone patiently waited for his second spotlight case before declaring him Rum's mentor or somesuch. Wakita has a better chance of being Amuro's former boxing instructor for all we know now.

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